Falling Embers

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.96%

EV $1.76 from 135 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.98%

52 openings, odds method

Variance

7.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

52 openings · below min

7 days

52 openings · below min

30 days

52 openings · below min

since tracking started

52 openings · below min

9.0%84.8%160.5%

Small sample. 52 openings and 5.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	52	84.98%±75.1	—	odds
7d	52	84.98%±75.1	—	odds
30d	52	84.98%±75.1	—	odds
All	52	84.98%±75.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values135 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 82 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$530	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$203	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 7,692	$192	1.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 3,125	$83.24	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,226	$83.09	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$80.93	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$73.36	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$72.47	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,778	$72.24	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$70.14	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 990	$25.80	1.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 588	$15.39	1.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 546	$14.24	1.5%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 524	$13.69	1.5%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 493	$12.88	1.5%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 391	$10.20	1.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 352	$9.17	1.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 329	$8.59	1.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 316	$8.26	1.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 288	$7.51	1.5%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 242	$6.31	1.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 236	$6.16	1.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 229	$6.00	1.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 228	$5.96	1.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 227	$5.92	1.5%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$4.87	1.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 166	$4.33	1.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 164	$4.28	1.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 163	$4.25	1.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 161	$4.20	1.5%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 153	$4.00	1.5%	1	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 139	$3.62	1.5%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 138	$3.61	1.5%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 138	$3.60	1.5%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$3.54	1.5%	2	0.6	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 114	$2.98	1.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 113	$2.95	1.5%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 112	$2.92	1.5%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$2.76	1.5%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 98	$2.55	1.5%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$2.51	1.5%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 95	$2.48	1.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$2.44	1.5%	1	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 93	$2.42	1.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$2.40	1.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$2.35	1.5%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 80	$2.08	1.5%	2	1.0	1.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 79	$2.05	1.5%	3	1.0	2.87×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 77	$2.02	1.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 77	$2.02	1.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 77	$2.01	1.5%	1	1.1	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 77	$2.01	1.5%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$1.99	1.5%	1	1.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$1.93	1.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 73	$1.90	1.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 72	$1.89	1.5%	2	1.1	1.77×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$1.85	1.5%	1	1.2	0.86×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 70	$1.83	1.5%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 488	$1.69	0.2%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 461	$1.60	0.2%	1	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 457	$1.58	0.2%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 448	$1.55	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 437	$1.51	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 420	$1.45	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 415	$1.44	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 403	$1.40	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 400	$1.39	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 386	$1.34	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 375	$1.30	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 373	$1.29	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 358	$1.24	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 352	$1.22	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 350	$1.21	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 347	$1.20	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 344	$1.19	0.2%	2	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 344	$1.19	0.2%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 324	$1.12	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 324	$1.12	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 324	$1.12	0.2%	1	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 317	$1.10	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 313	$1.08	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 309	$1.07	0.2%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 306	$1.06	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 297	$1.03	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 297	$1.03	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 289	$1.00	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 283	$0.98	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 280	$0.97	0.2%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 272	$0.94	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 266	$0.92	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 257	$0.89	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 254	$0.88	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 240	$0.83	0.2%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 237	$0.82	0.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 231	$0.80	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 222	$0.77	0.2%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 219	$0.76	0.2%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 214	$0.74	0.2%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 214	$0.74	0.2%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 214	$0.74	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 214	$0.74	0.2%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 208	$0.72	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 208	$0.72	0.2%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 202	$0.70	0.2%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 193	$0.67	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 194	$0.67	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 193	$0.67	0.2%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 188	$0.65	0.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 139	$0.48	0.2%	1	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 136	$0.47	0.2%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 124	$0.43	0.2%	1	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 124	$0.43	0.2%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 116	$0.40	0.2%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 115	$0.40	0.2%	0	0.7	—
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 107	$0.37	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 107	$0.37	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 104	$0.36	0.2%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 101	$0.35	0.2%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 95	$0.33	0.2%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$0.28	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 66	$0.23	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.22	0.2%	1	1.3	0.77×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.21	0.2%	1	1.4	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 49	$0.17	0.2%	1	1.7	0.60×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 49	$0.17	0.2%	1	1.7	0.60×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$0.17	0.2%	4	1.7	2.40×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.14	0.2%	1	2.0	0.49×
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 40	$0.14	0.2%	3	2.0	1.48×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$0.14	0.2%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.14	0.2%	4	2.0	1.97×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$0.13	0.2%	1	2.2	0.46×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 35	$0.12	0.2%	4	2.4	1.69×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 35	$0.12	0.2%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$0.12	0.2%	1	2.4	0.42×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/falling-embers, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · bluexcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG$2.00$0.470.24x10m

Glock-18 | Winterized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1xcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG$2.00$0.140.07x10m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecxcZaRaBx | #CASEHUG$2.00$0.770.39x10m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecz0om$2.00$0.120.06x14m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecz0om$2.00$0.170.09x14m

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecADi2137 skins.army$2.00$0.210.11x37m

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecADi2137 skins.army$2.00$0.480.24x37m

M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specUnre@L$2.00$1.600.80x49m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecgay pride 00$2.00$0.140.07x54m

MP9 | Goo (Factory New)weapon · restrictedgay pride 00$2.00$3.541.77x54m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.00	87.96%	135
11 Nov, 03:46 UTC	$2.00	88.01%	135

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.5%3 0.3%covert 0.2%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 0.0%mil spec 15.9%Mythical 3.0%milspec 32.9%blue 6.8%Rare 6.1%restricted 14.0%violet 2.9%#8847ff 1.6%Mil Spec Grade 5.5%Mil Spec 1.4%#4b69ff 7.1%best hit —