Feather

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$25.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $22.00 from 188 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.17%

159 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

24 openings · below min

7 days

89.96%±27.54144 openings

30 days

91.17%±26.19159 openings

since tracking started

91.17%±26.19159 openings

62.0%134.3%206.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	24	138.09%±67.7	—	odds
7d	144	89.96%±27.5	+0.1σ	odds
30d	159	91.17%±26.2	+0.2σ	odds
All	159	91.17%±26.2	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values188 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$1,263	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 11,111	$975	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$763	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$637	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$561	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$530	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$497	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$455	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,556	$444	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$408	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$366	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 4,167	$337	0.4%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 4,167	$328	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,846	$313	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,846	$312	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$303	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,571	$284	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$280	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,571	$279	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,448	$276	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$275	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,448	$274	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$273	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,448	$272	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 3,448	$271	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,333	$263	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,226	$261	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,226	$259	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 3,125	$253	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 3,125	$251	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,030	$240	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$238	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,941	$235	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,941	$234	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,857	$233	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$233	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,857	$231	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 2,857	$230	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,857	$229	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,857	$225	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$224	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,778	$222	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,703	$218	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,778	$218	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,703	$216	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,632	$212	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,564	$208	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,564	$208	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 2,564	$207	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,564	$207	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$203	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$198	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,439	$196	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,439	$195	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 2,439	$194	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$193	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 2,381	$192	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,326	$187	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$184	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$181	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,273	$181	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,222	$175	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 2,174	$173	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$171	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$164	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,041	$164	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$161	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$160	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 2,000	$160	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$159	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$156	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,887	$151	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$151	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$146	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$141	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$140	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,754	$140	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,724	$139	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,724	$139	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,724	$138	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,724	$137	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,695	$137	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$135	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$135	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,667	$133	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$133	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,639	$132	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$132	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$131	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$131	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,613	$128	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$127	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 1,587	$125	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$123	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$122	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$119	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 1,471	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$112	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$111	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$108	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,266	$101	0.4%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,163	$92.56	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 1,064	$85.21	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$84.60	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,042	$83.24	0.4%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,042	$83.09	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$81.60	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,020	$80.93	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 971	$77.83	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 971	$77.09	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$73.36	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 901	$72.47	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$72.24	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 877	$70.14	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 870	$69.77	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 870	$69.71	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 862	$68.85	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 855	$68.19	0.4%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 847	$67.47	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$61.71	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 763	$61.12	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 694	$55.32	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 690	$55.29	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 641	$51.03	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 637	$50.81	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 581	$46.44	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 552	$44.14	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 549	$43.85	0.4%	2	0.3	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 529	$42.15	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 503	$40.21	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$40.02	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 495	$39.45	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 474	$37.89	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 461	$36.75	0.4%	1	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 457	$36.57	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 455	$36.28	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 452	$36.04	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 448	$35.83	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 444	$35.43	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 441	$35.25	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 417	$33.23	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 412	$32.89	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 375	$29.92	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 357	$28.47	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 355	$28.32	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 346	$27.68	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 314	$25.12	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 313	$25.01	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 308	$24.65	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 298	$23.77	0.4%	2	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 284	$22.72	0.4%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 280	$22.37	0.4%	2	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 276	$22.08	0.4%	3	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$19.82	1.3%	3	2.3	1.31×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$18.49	1.3%	2	2.5	0.82×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$18.10	1.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$17.64	1.3%	2	2.6	0.78×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 60	$16.99	1.3%	3	2.7	1.12×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$16.69	1.3%	4	2.7	1.47×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$16.56	1.3%	2	2.7	0.73×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$16.36	1.3%	2	2.8	0.72×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$15.36	1.3%	3	3.0	1.02×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$14.20	1.3%	3	3.2	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$13.23	1.3%	3	3.4	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$12.49	1.3%	4	3.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$12.40	1.3%	2	3.7	0.55×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$12.03	1.3%	3	3.8	0.80×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 42	$11.94	1.3%	3	3.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$11.67	1.3%	1	3.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$11.43	1.3%	5	4.0	1.26×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$11.28	1.3%	3	4.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 39	$11.13	1.3%	4	4.1	0.98×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$10.94	1.3%	4	4.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$10.73	1.3%	1	4.2	0.24×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$10.50	1.3%	4	4.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 35	$10.12	1.3%	9	4.5	2.01×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$10.09	1.3%	3	4.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$9.48	1.3%	2	4.8	0.42×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$9.41	1.3%	8	4.8	1.66×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$9.20	1.3%	6	4.9	1.22×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$9.07	1.3%	6	5.0	1.20×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$8.75	1.3%	5	5.2	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$8.18	1.3%	7	5.5	1.26×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$7.92	1.3%	4	5.7	0.70×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$7.89	1.3%	2	5.7	0.35×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 27	$7.83	1.3%	11	5.8	1.90×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.22	1.3%	9	6.3	1.43×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/feather, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6pisika$25.00$10.120.40x5m

StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedterror$25.00$16.990.68x2h

★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertterror$25.00$1616.44x2h

AWP | POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetBart Sampson$25.00$9.200.37x5h

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBart Sampson$25.00$12.030.48x5h

Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedBart Sampson$25.00$12.490.50x5h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalBart Sampson$25.00$7.830.31x6h

P90 | Blind Spot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedBart Sampson$25.00$10.090.40x6h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalBart Sampson$25.00$7.830.31x6h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMrBlosm$25.00$55.322.21x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$25.00	87.99%	188
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$25.00	88.03%	188
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$25.00	87.94%	188
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$25.00	88.01%	188
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$25.00	88.00%	188
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$25.00	88.03%	188
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$25.00	88.04%	188
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$25.00	88.00%	188
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$25.00	87.95%	188
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$25.00	87.92%	188
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$25.00	87.97%	188
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$25.00	87.99%	188

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 3.1%Classified 2.8%classified 22.8%covert knife 0.9%Covert 0.2%Legendary 0.3%epic 0.1%red 1.2%Ancient 0.4%gold 0.1%rare 1.0%restricted 45.3%#8847ff 0.1%violet 6.2%#eb4b4b 0.1%Restricted 0.2%Mythical 9.8%pink 0.6%uncommon 2.0%#d32ee6 2.8%best hit —