Final Dance

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$16.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $14.08 from 174 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.99%

63 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

60 openings · below min

30 days

63 openings · below min

since tracking started

63 openings · below min

-0.5%91.5%183.5%

Small sample. 63 openings and 8.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	42.75%±140.3	—	odds
7d	60	88.54%±31.6	—	odds
30d	63	85.99%±30.8	—	odds
All	63	85.99%±30.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values174 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$365	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 5,263	$317	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$273	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$267	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,167	$253	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$207	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$194	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$194	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$187	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Corticera (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$159	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$149	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$144	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$140	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$128	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,041	$122	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$118	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$117	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,852	$112	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,852	$112	0.4%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,852	$111	0.4%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,639	$98.80	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$96.22	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$89.66	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$88.30	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$86.44	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$86.23	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$85.78	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$85.22	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$82.90	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,370	$82.24	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$81.65	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$81.58	0.4%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,351	$81.03	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$80.86	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,351	$80.23	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$79.20	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$78.94	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$78.79	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,299	$77.82	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$77.23	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,235	$74.44	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$73.22	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,205	$72.45	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$71.48	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$71.02	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$70.77	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$70.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$69.14	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$68.06	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$67.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,087	$65.15	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$63.79	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,020	$61.71	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$59.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 926	$55.64	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 926	$55.35	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 926	$55.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 917	$55.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 917	$55.14	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 909	$54.34	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 893	$53.35	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$53.16	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The End (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 870	$52.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 847	$50.96	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 794	$47.75	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 781	$46.92	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 781	$46.78	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 775	$46.45	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 758	$45.53	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 758	$45.37	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$44.82	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 735	$44.23	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 730	$43.96	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$43.87	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 730	$43.85	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 714	$42.97	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 709	$42.72	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 709	$42.49	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 699	$42.22	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 704	$42.11	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 690	$41.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 680	$40.98	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 667	$40.02	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 662	$39.83	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 662	$39.73	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 633	$37.89	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 629	$37.82	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 613	$36.80	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 610	$36.75	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 599	$35.93	0.4%	1	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 599	$35.77	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 588	$35.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 578	$34.78	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 578	$34.74	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 565	$34.06	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 546	$32.85	0.4%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 543	$32.65	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 529	$31.76	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 526	$31.55	0.4%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$31.47	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 518	$31.06	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 515	$30.96	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 508	$30.49	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$30.07	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 490	$29.46	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 481	$28.88	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 481	$28.84	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 472	$28.32	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 469	$28.16	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 442	$26.57	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 433	$26.10	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 433	$26.02	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 413	$24.80	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 403	$24.29	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 398	$23.88	0.4%	1	0.2	—
P90 \| Virus (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 397	$23.81	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 385	$23.09	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 379	$22.72	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 373	$22.37	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 360	$21.59	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 339	$20.37	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 325	$19.50	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 324	$19.47	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 301	$18.08	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 298	$17.89	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 293	$17.64	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 280	$16.81	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 279	$16.74	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 278	$16.69	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 254	$15.28	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 247	$14.85	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$13.92	1.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$13.27	1.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 90	$12.99	1.0%	0	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$12.97	1.0%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$12.72	1.0%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$12.14	1.0%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$11.94	1.0%	1	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$11.93	1.0%	1	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$11.76	1.0%	0	0.8	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$11.30	1.0%	3	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$11.05	1.0%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$10.50	1.0%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 72	$10.37	1.0%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 72	$10.33	1.0%	0	0.9	—
FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$9.36	1.0%	3	1.0	2.95×
AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 64	$9.20	1.0%	1	1.0	0.97×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$9.09	1.0%	3	1.0	2.86×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$8.90	1.0%	2	1.1	1.87×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 56	$8.15	1.0%	1	1.2	0.85×
MP7 \| Impire (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$8.06	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$7.95	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$7.81	1.0%	1	1.2	0.82×
FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$7.75	1.0%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$7.41	1.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$7.33	1.0%	2	1.3	1.54×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 49	$7.07	1.0%	2	1.3	1.48×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$7.06	1.0%	1	1.4	0.74×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$6.99	1.0%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$6.99	1.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 47	$6.73	1.0%	4	1.4	2.82×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$6.62	1.0%	2	1.4	1.39×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 44	$6.42	1.0%	1	1.5	0.67×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$6.18	1.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 42	$6.14	1.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$6.10	1.0%	2	1.6	1.28×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$5.85	1.0%	2	1.6	1.23×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$5.77	1.0%	3	1.7	1.82×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 37	$5.36	1.0%	3	1.8	1.69×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$4.99	1.0%	1	1.9	0.52×
UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$4.97	1.0%	1	1.9	0.52×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$4.73	1.0%	2	2.0	0.99×
P90 \| Virus (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 31	$4.52	1.0%	1	2.1	0.47×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$4.04	1.0%	3	2.4	1.27×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/final-dance, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classifieddanii$16.00$8.900.56x13h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricteddanii$16.00$5.850.37x13h

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkArcziii33$16.00$5.770.36x14h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedFTMX$16.00$7.520.47x1d

FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCWLinho$16.00$29.991.87x1d

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce60ctopo$16.00$5.360.34x1d

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink0ctopo$16.00$9.090.57x1d

SG 553 | Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified0ctopo$16.00$69.474.34x1d

M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedNeaKătă$16.00$7.030.44x2d

AWP | The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkParadox$16.00$10.680.67x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$16.00	88.00%	174
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$16.00	88.03%	174
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC	$16.00	87.98%	174
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	174
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$16.00	87.98%	174
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	174
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	174
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$16.00	88.10%	174
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC	$16.00	88.01%	174

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.3%Covert 0.2%Legendary 0.1%classified 7.8%restricted 45.4%Ancient 1.0%red 1.0%#8847ff 7.1%#eb4b4b 0.3%Restricted 8.1%Mythical 3.5%#d32ce6 2.9%violet 7.0%pink 11.3%best hit —