Fragments of Tomorrow

A case on Hellcase (trending), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$21.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $18.47 from 130 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.52%

124 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

92.52%±27.44124 openings

30 days

92.52%±27.44124 openings

since tracking started

92.52%±27.44124 openings

14.5%107.7%201.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	107.63%±92.6	—	odds
7d	124	92.52%±27.4	+0.3σ	odds
30d	124	92.52%±27.4	+0.3σ	odds
All	124	92.52%±27.4	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values130 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$807	0.6%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$499	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$374	0.6%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$370	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,778	$309	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$232	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$219	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$214	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$214	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$212	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$204	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$193	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$192	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,613	$179	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$176	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$175	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,538	$171	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$167	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$164	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$162	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$158	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$158	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$150	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$143	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$142	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$139	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$135	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$131	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$131	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$129	0.6%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$129	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,136	$127	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,136	$126	0.6%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$124	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 1,099	$122	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$121	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,075	$120	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$118	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$117	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,042	$116	0.6%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,031	$114	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 990	$110	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$110	0.6%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 962	$106	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 870	$96.35	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 840	$93.45	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 833	$92.48	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 820	$91.25	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 741	$81.97	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$81.63	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$81.42	0.6%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 735	$81.37	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.66	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$80.61	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.60	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 725	$80.52	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 725	$80.39	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 719	$79.96	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 714	$79.32	0.6%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 709	$78.74	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 685	$75.66	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 654	$72.82	0.6%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 649	$72.26	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 633	$70.09	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 625	$69.28	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$68.80	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 606	$67.19	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 599	$66.69	0.6%	1	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 599	$66.43	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 595	$66.14	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 585	$64.96	0.6%	0	0.2	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 559	$61.76	0.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 556	$61.54	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 556	$61.53	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 549	$61.19	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 546	$60.82	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 529	$58.72	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 529	$58.61	0.6%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 498	$55.31	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 490	$54.30	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 485	$54.05	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 472	$52.39	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 472	$52.37	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 463	$51.46	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 459	$51.13	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 452	$50.36	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 448	$49.78	0.6%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 448	$49.75	0.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 426	$47.29	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 418	$46.45	0.6%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 413	$45.96	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 405	$45.02	0.6%	1	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 405	$44.96	0.6%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$44.03	0.6%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$43.89	0.6%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 386	$42.84	0.6%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 383	$42.54	0.6%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 376	$41.80	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 372	$41.27	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 361	$40.03	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 361	$40.00	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 360	$39.87	0.6%	0	0.4	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$39.61	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$38.70	0.6%	0	0.4	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 348	$38.70	0.6%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 342	$38.05	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 316	$35.17	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 304	$33.77	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 277	$30.79	0.6%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 260	$28.92	0.6%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 242	$26.84	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 239	$26.51	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 236	$26.26	0.6%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 196	$21.80	0.6%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 191	$21.22	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 185	$20.48	0.6%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$20.01	0.6%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 173	$19.21	0.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 172	$19.05	0.6%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 169	$18.83	0.6%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 169	$18.83	0.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 169	$18.72	0.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$17.93	3.3%	6	4.4	1.37×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 18	$11.01	3.3%	5	7.1	0.70×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$8.31	3.3%	6	9.4	0.64×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 13	$7.99	3.3%	12	9.8	1.22×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$7.83	3.3%	13	10.0	1.30×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	13.6%	$4.53	3.3%	20	17.3	1.16×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	15.5%	$3.98	3.3%	16	19.7	0.81×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	15.9%	$3.87	3.3%	23	20.2	1.14×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/fragments-of-tomorrow, 12 Nov, 04:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedUser$21.00$11.010.52x44m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkBRABUS$21.00$3.980.19x3h

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covertMakizze™$21.00$1105.21x3h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkRIP$21.00$3.980.19x4h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedİK YAŞAR$21.00$4.530.22x5h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkSMΔCK$21.00$3.870.18x6h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkJasterowy$21.00$3.980.19x11h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkmindoza$21.00$3.870.18x18h

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertZoZ1k$21.00$66.693.18x18h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · CovertBart Sampson$21.00$28.921.38x21h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$21.00	87.97%	130
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$21.00	87.98%	130
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$21.00	87.95%	130
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$21.00	87.98%	130
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$21.00	87.97%	130
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$21.00	88.02%	130
6 Nov, 23:48 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	130

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.8%classified 42.4%Ancient 0.9%covert knife 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.8%Covert 0.8%red 2.0%pink 41.4%Legendary 0.4%#d32ee6 0.5%best hit —