Harlequin Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$8.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $7.04 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.48%

147 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

34.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

92.64%±13.46129 openings

30 days

87.48%±12.62147 openings

since tracking started

87.48%±12.62147 openings

74.0%111.8%149.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	118.50%±30.5	—	odds
7d	129	92.64%±13.5	+0.7σ	odds
30d	147	87.48%±12.6	−0.1σ	odds
All	147	87.48%±12.6	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 147 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$25.96	14.2%	5	5.7	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 16	$16.34	14.2%	10	9.0	1.11×
AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 10	$10.17	14.2%	14	14.5	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	11.0%	$9.12	14.2%	11	16.2	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	11.2%	$8.97	14.2%	10	16.4	0.61×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	11.2%	$8.97	14.2%	23	16.4	1.40×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	11.9%	$8.46	14.2%	23	17.4	1.32×
AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25,000	$5.96	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16,667	$4.38	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 14,286	$3.52	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$3.43	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12,500	$3.17	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10,000	$2.59	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 7,143	$1.76	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 5,263	$1.39	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,762	$1.21	0.0%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 4,000	$1.01	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 3,846	$1.00	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,846	$1.00	0.0%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,704	$0.98	0.0%	0	0.0	—
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,852	$0.48	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,852	$0.48	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,190	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,124	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 1,111	$0.29	0.0%	1	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,010	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 962	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 926	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 885	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 847	$0.22	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 847	$0.22	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 813	$0.21	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 694	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.2	—
XM1014 \| XoooM (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 694	$0.18	0.0%	1	0.2	—
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 503	$0.13	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 463	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 308	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.5	—
XM1014 \| XoooM (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 308	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 309	$0.08	0.0%	0	0.5	—
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 231	$0.06	0.0%	0	0.6	—
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 231	$0.06	0.0%	1	0.6	—
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.0	—
MP7 \| Coral Paisley (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.0	—
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.0	—
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.0	—
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	4	1.0	—
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.0	—
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	3	1.0	—
XM1014 \| XoooM (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.0	—
XM1014 \| XoooM (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	2	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	0	1.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 154	$0.04	0.0%	1	1.0	—
XM1014 \| XoooM (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.3	2.36×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	4	1.3	3.15×
R8 Revolver \| Mauve Aside (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.3	2.36×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Thermal Currents (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	3	1.3	2.36×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Minimal Wear)weapon · grey	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
Sawed-Off \| Crimson Batik (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Factory New)weapon · Common	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Minimal Wear)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Field-Tested)weapon · #b0c3d9	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
FAMAS \| Byproduct (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 116	$0.03	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/harlequin-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce629$8.00$16.342.04x5h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkINNNNho$8.00$9.121.14x14h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pinkINNNNho$8.00$25.963.25x14h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedINNNNho$8.00$8.961.12x14h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkINNNNho$8.00$8.461.06x14h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkMaster Eren™$8.00$8.461.06x15h

MP9 | Bee-Tron (Well-Worn)weapon · consumerMaster Eren™$8.00$0.030.00x15h

M4A1-S | Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6WillianFT08$8.00$16.342.04x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$8.00	88.17%	84
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$8.00	88.00%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 26.7%#d32ce6 6.1%Mythical 21.0%classified 11.2%restricted 0.0%#8847ff 0.1%#4b69ff 1.2%milspec 0.1%Rare 0.1%#5e98d9 1.6%blue 0.1%Uncommon 0.9%Common 2.4%#b0c3d9 9.0%industrial 5.8%light blue 0.6%consumer 12.1%grey 0.9%best hit —