Hell

A case on Hellcase (first-strike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.20

Advertised RTP

87.95%

EV $0.18 from 278 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.56%

10.1K openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.42%±11.401,120 openings

7 days

92.52%±4.248,070 openings

30 days

92.56%±3.7910.1K openings

since tracking started

92.56%±3.7910.1K openings

79.5%91.5%103.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (88.77% – 96.35%, 10,063 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,120	91.42%±11.4	+0.6σ	odds
7d	8,070	92.52%±4.24	+2.1σ	odds
30d	10.1K	92.56%±3.79	+2.4σ	odds
All	10.1K	92.56%±3.79	+2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values278 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20,000	$9.95	0.3%	1	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 20,000	$9.92	0.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 16,667	$9.60	0.3%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$7.64	0.3%	1	0.7	—
MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12,500	$6.84	0.3%	1	0.8	—
P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14,286	$6.64	0.3%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 12,500	$6.14	0.3%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12,500	$5.81	0.3%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$5.40	0.3%	2	0.9	—
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 11,111	$5.17	0.3%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$5.14	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 10,000	$5.03	0.3%	1	1.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 10,000	$4.96	0.3%	2	1.0	1.98×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$4.63	0.3%	2	1.0	1.98×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 9,091	$4.33	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 8,333	$4.25	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 8,333	$4.02	0.3%	3	1.2	2.48×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$3.81	0.3%	2	1.3	1.53×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 7,692	$3.80	0.3%	1	1.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 7,692	$3.78	0.3%	4	1.3	3.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 7,143	$3.66	0.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,143	$3.59	0.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$3.54	0.3%	3	1.4	2.13×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$3.37	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$3.29	0.3%	3	1.5	1.98×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 6,667	$3.26	0.3%	2	1.5	1.32×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 6,667	$3.26	0.3%	3	1.5	1.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$3.19	0.3%	4	1.5	2.65×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,882	$2.89	0.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,556	$2.88	0.3%	2	1.8	1.10×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 5,882	$2.88	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,263	$2.63	0.3%	2	1.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 5,263	$2.59	0.3%	3	1.9	1.57×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 5,000	$2.50	0.3%	3	2.0	1.49×
P90 \| Traction (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$2.48	0.3%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$2.44	0.3%	3	2.1	1.42×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,000	$2.43	0.3%	1	2.0	0.50×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 4,762	$2.40	0.3%	1	2.1	0.47×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$2.39	0.3%	6	2.0	2.98×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,545	$2.31	0.3%	4	2.2	1.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,348	$2.20	0.3%	2	2.3	0.86×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,348	$2.18	0.3%	3	2.3	1.29×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 4,167	$2.13	0.3%	1	2.4	0.41×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 4,348	$2.11	0.3%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 4,167	$2.11	0.3%	3	2.4	1.24×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,167	$2.11	0.3%	3	2.4	1.24×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 4,167	$2.02	0.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,000	$2.02	0.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 4,000	$2.01	0.3%	4	2.5	1.59×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,846	$1.94	0.3%	5	2.6	1.91×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,704	$1.90	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 3,704	$1.88	0.3%	3	2.7	1.10×
P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 3,704	$1.84	0.3%	3	2.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,571	$1.82	0.3%	1	2.8	0.35×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,571	$1.80	0.3%	1	2.8	0.35×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,571	$1.80	0.3%	3	2.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$1.69	0.3%	7	2.9	2.40×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,226	$1.62	0.3%	3	3.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,226	$1.60	0.3%	4	3.1	1.28×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,125	$1.57	0.3%	3	3.2	0.93×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 3,125	$1.56	0.3%	4	3.2	1.24×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,125	$1.56	0.3%	1	3.2	0.31×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,125	$1.55	0.3%	2	3.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,125	$1.55	0.3%	5	3.2	1.55×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,125	$1.54	0.3%	7	3.2	2.17×
P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 3,030	$1.52	0.3%	2	3.3	0.60×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 3,030	$1.51	0.3%	3	3.3	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,030	$1.50	0.3%	1	3.3	0.30×
P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 2,857	$1.46	0.3%	1	3.5	0.28×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,941	$1.46	0.3%	5	3.4	1.46×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$1.45	0.3%	2	3.4	0.58×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,857	$1.44	0.3%	4	3.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,857	$1.44	0.3%	2	3.5	0.57×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$1.41	0.3%	4	3.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,857	$1.41	0.3%	6	3.5	1.70×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,857	$1.41	0.3%	1	3.5	0.28×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$1.40	0.3%	3	3.6	0.83×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,778	$1.39	0.3%	3	3.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,703	$1.38	0.3%	2	3.7	0.54×
MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,703	$1.35	0.3%	3	3.7	0.80×
P90 \| Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 2,703	$1.35	0.3%	5	3.7	1.34×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,703	$1.34	0.3%	5	3.7	1.34×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Sand Scale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,632	$1.33	0.3%	6	3.8	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,632	$1.32	0.3%	5	3.8	1.31×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,632	$1.32	0.3%	2	3.8	0.52×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,632	$1.31	0.3%	4	3.8	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,632	$1.30	0.3%	4	3.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,632	$1.30	0.3%	3	3.8	0.78×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,564	$1.29	0.3%	2	3.9	0.51×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$1.25	0.3%	2	4.0	0.50×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,439	$1.24	0.3%	2	4.1	0.48×
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 2,500	$1.24	0.3%	4	4.0	0.99×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,439	$1.22	0.3%	3	4.1	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,439	$1.20	0.3%	4	4.1	0.97×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,381	$1.20	0.3%	4	4.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,439	$1.20	0.3%	6	4.1	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 2,381	$1.20	0.3%	7	4.2	1.65×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,381	$1.19	0.3%	7	4.2	1.65×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,381	$1.18	0.3%	4	4.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,326	$1.18	0.3%	5	4.3	1.15×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,381	$1.18	0.3%	5	4.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,381	$1.18	0.3%	4	4.2	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,381	$1.18	0.3%	3	4.2	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,326	$1.18	0.3%	5	4.3	1.15×
MP9 \| Sand Scale (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 2,381	$1.17	0.3%	5	4.2	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,326	$1.16	0.3%	5	4.3	1.15×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,326	$1.16	0.3%	6	4.3	1.38×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,326	$1.16	0.3%	5	4.3	1.15×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 2,273	$1.15	0.3%	5	4.4	1.13×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,273	$1.15	0.3%	1	4.4	0.23×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,273	$1.13	0.3%	5	4.4	1.13×
P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,273	$1.12	0.3%	7	4.4	1.58×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,222	$1.12	0.3%	7	4.5	1.54×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,222	$1.11	0.3%	6	4.5	1.32×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 2,222	$1.11	0.3%	5	4.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 2,222	$1.11	0.3%	3	4.5	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 2,174	$1.09	0.3%	2	4.6	0.43×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,128	$1.07	0.3%	6	4.7	1.27×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,961	$0.97	0.3%	5	5.1	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 1,961	$0.97	0.3%	5	5.1	0.97×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,923	$0.95	0.3%	10	5.2	1.91×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,887	$0.94	0.3%	5	5.3	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,887	$0.94	0.3%	3	5.3	0.56×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,786	$0.89	0.3%	6	5.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,786	$0.88	0.3%	6	5.6	1.06×
P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,724	$0.86	0.3%	8	5.8	1.37×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,695	$0.85	0.3%	10	5.9	1.68×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,695	$0.84	0.3%	2	5.9	0.34×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,639	$0.82	0.3%	8	6.1	1.30×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,587	$0.80	0.3%	12	6.3	1.89×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,587	$0.80	0.3%	11	6.3	1.73×
P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,562	$0.79	0.3%	6	6.4	0.93×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 1,538	$0.76	0.3%	3	6.5	0.46×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,471	$0.74	0.3%	7	6.9	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,429	$0.72	0.3%	8	7.1	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,408	$0.71	0.3%	10	7.2	1.40×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,429	$0.71	0.3%	8	7.1	1.13×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,429	$0.71	0.3%	6	7.1	0.85×
Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,408	$0.70	0.3%	8	7.2	1.12×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,408	$0.70	0.3%	11	7.2	1.54×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,408	$0.70	0.3%	9	7.2	1.26×
M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,389	$0.70	0.3%	9	7.3	1.24×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,370	$0.68	0.3%	7	7.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,370	$0.68	0.3%	5	7.4	0.68×
M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,370	$0.68	0.3%	12	7.4	1.63×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,351	$0.67	0.3%	11	7.5	1.48×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,333	$0.67	0.3%	6	7.6	0.79×
MP9 \| Sand Scale (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,316	$0.66	0.3%	5	7.7	0.65×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,299	$0.65	0.3%	9	7.8	1.16×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Sand Scale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,299	$0.65	0.3%	10	7.8	1.29×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,282	$0.64	0.3%	9	7.9	1.15×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,282	$0.64	0.3%	10	7.9	1.27×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,266	$0.64	0.3%	11	8.0	1.38×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 1,250	$0.62	0.3%	3	8.1	0.37×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,250	$0.62	0.3%	7	8.1	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,220	$0.61	0.3%	6	8.3	0.73×
M249 \| Spectre (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,220	$0.61	0.3%	8	8.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,099	$0.55	0.3%	8	9.2	0.87×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,075	$0.54	0.3%	8	9.4	0.85×
MP9 \| Sand Scale (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,087	$0.54	0.3%	8	9.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,064	$0.53	0.3%	15	9.5	1.58×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,064	$0.53	0.3%	8	9.5	0.84×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,064	$0.53	0.3%	11	9.5	1.16×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,053	$0.53	0.3%	9	9.6	0.94×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,031	$0.52	0.3%	10	9.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,042	$0.52	0.3%	4	9.7	0.41×
CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,020	$0.51	0.3%	11	9.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,000	$0.50	0.3%	6	10.1	0.60×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.50	0.3%	5	10.1	0.50×
M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,000	$0.50	0.3%	17	10.1	1.69×
P90 \| Traction (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	13	10.5	1.24×
P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	12	10.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	7	10.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 952	$0.48	0.3%	9	10.6	0.85×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 952	$0.48	0.3%	12	10.6	1.13×
P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	8	10.5	0.76×
P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	18	10.5	1.72×
M249 \| Spectre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 962	$0.48	0.3%	12	10.5	1.15×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 935	$0.47	0.3%	11	10.8	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 943	$0.47	0.3%	13	10.7	1.22×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Sand Scale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 943	$0.47	0.3%	16	10.7	1.50×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 917	$0.46	0.3%	14	11.0	1.27×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 926	$0.46	0.3%	6	10.9	0.55×
Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 901	$0.45	0.3%	6	11.2	0.54×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 901	$0.45	0.3%	11	11.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 901	$0.45	0.3%	8	11.2	0.72×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 901	$0.45	0.3%	13	11.2	1.16×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 877	$0.44	0.3%	11	11.5	0.96×
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 885	$0.44	0.3%	13	11.4	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 862	$0.43	0.3%	8	11.7	0.68×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 862	$0.43	0.3%	10	11.7	0.86×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 840	$0.42	0.3%	9	12.0	0.75×
P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 820	$0.41	0.3%	24	12.3	1.95×
MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 820	$0.41	0.3%	9	12.3	0.73×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Sand Scale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 820	$0.41	0.3%	19	12.3	1.55×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 820	$0.41	0.3%	14	12.3	1.14×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 800	$0.40	0.3%	8	12.6	0.64×
P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 800	$0.40	0.3%	10	12.6	0.79×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 800	$0.40	0.3%	13	12.6	1.03×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 763	$0.38	0.3%	15	13.2	1.14×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 763	$0.38	0.3%	9	13.2	0.68×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 758	$0.38	0.3%	18	13.3	1.35×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	12	13.6	0.88×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	12	13.6	0.88×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	10	13.6	0.74×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	20	13.6	1.47×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	15	13.6	1.10×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 735	$0.37	0.3%	21	13.7	1.53×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 735	$0.37	0.3%	13	13.7	0.95×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 741	$0.37	0.3%	9	13.6	0.66×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 725	$0.36	0.3%	23	13.9	1.65×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 699	$0.35	0.3%	13	14.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 680	$0.34	0.3%	18	14.8	1.22×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 680	$0.34	0.3%	8	14.8	0.54×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 680	$0.34	0.3%	14	14.8	0.95×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 662	$0.33	0.3%	30	15.2	1.97×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 658	$0.33	0.3%	16	15.3	1.04×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 641	$0.32	0.3%	28	15.7	1.78×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Spectre (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 641	$0.32	0.3%	14	15.7	0.89×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 621	$0.31	0.3%	19	16.2	1.17×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 602	$0.30	0.3%	17	16.7	1.02×
MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 578	$0.29	0.3%	18	17.4	1.03×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 581	$0.29	0.3%	23	17.3	1.33×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 581	$0.29	0.3%	19	17.3	1.10×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 578	$0.29	0.3%	9	17.4	0.52×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 500	$0.25	0.3%	21	20.2	1.04×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 500	$0.25	0.3%	22	20.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 481	$0.24	0.3%	29	21.0	1.38×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 481	$0.24	0.3%	23	21.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 481	$0.24	0.3%	23	21.0	1.10×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 481	$0.24	0.3%	26	21.0	1.24×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 478	$0.24	0.3%	21	21.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 481	$0.24	0.3%	16	21.0	0.76×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 478	$0.24	0.3%	18	21.1	0.85×
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 461	$0.23	0.3%	24	21.9	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 459	$0.23	0.3%	20	22.0	0.91×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 459	$0.23	0.3%	21	22.0	0.96×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 461	$0.23	0.3%	28	21.9	1.28×
SG 553 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 461	$0.23	0.3%	31	21.9	1.42×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 461	$0.23	0.3%	26	21.9	1.19×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New)weapon · common	1 in 459	$0.23	0.3%	19	22.0	0.86×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 441	$0.22	0.3%	24	22.9	1.05×
MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 439	$0.22	0.3%	15	23.0	0.65×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 441	$0.22	0.3%	19	22.9	0.83×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 439	$0.22	0.3%	28	23.0	1.22×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 420	$0.21	0.3%	18	24.0	0.75×
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 400	$0.20	0.3%	28	25.2	1.11×
Nova \| Rain Station (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 400	$0.20	0.3%	25	25.2	0.99×
P250 \| Constructivist (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 360	$0.18	0.3%	20	28.0	0.71×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 96	$0.17	1.0%	53	105.4	0.50×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 96	$0.17	1.0%	107	105.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 96	$0.17	1.0%	103	105.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 96	$0.17	1.0%	118	105.4	1.12×
P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 96	$0.17	1.0%	90	105.4	0.85×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$0.14	1.0%	138	128.1	1.08×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 79	$0.14	1.0%	126	128.0	0.98×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 68	$0.12	1.0%	147	149.2	0.99×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 56	$0.10	1.0%	188	179.2	1.05×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 56	$0.10	1.0%	157	179.3	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 51	$0.09	1.0%	187	199.1	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 51	$0.09	1.0%	189	199.1	0.95×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 45	$0.08	1.0%	222	224.0	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 45	$0.08	1.0%	239	223.9	1.07×
Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 45	$0.08	1.0%	433	224.0	1.93×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 39	$0.07	1.0%	281	256.0	1.10×
P2000 \| Marsh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 39	$0.07	1.0%	278	255.9	1.09×
P250 \| Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 34	$0.06	1.0%	273	298.6	0.91×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	431	448.0	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	441	448.0	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	351	447.9	0.78×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	418	447.9	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	457	448.0	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	454	448.0	1.01×
P2000 \| Marsh (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	349	448.0	0.78×
P2000 \| Marsh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	353	447.9	0.79×
P2000 \| Marsh (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	428	448.0	0.96×
P250 \| Constructivist (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	468	448.0	1.04×
Nova \| Rain Station (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 22	$0.04	1.0%	522	448.0	1.17×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/hell, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

XM1014 | Bone Machine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecSmoczyWojownik1992$0.20$10.1450.70x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialdameeeee$0.20$0.040.20x31s

M249 | Spectre (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecdameeeee$0.20$0.683.40x31s

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9ADi2137 skins.army$0.20$0.080.40x2m

Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9qq$0.20$0.080.40x2m

P2000 | Marsh (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9qq$0.20$0.040.20x2m

P2000 | Marsh (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9Diamond$0.20$0.070.35x4m

Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialDiamond$0.20$0.040.20x4m

Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9Alex-99$0.20$0.040.20x5m

AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonAlex-99$0.20$0.100.50x5m

Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9ngy$0.20$0.040.20x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.20	87.95%	278
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$0.20	88.06%	278
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.20	88.19%	278
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.20	88.00%	278
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.20	87.99%	278
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.20	87.97%	278
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.20	87.91%	278
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.20	87.98%	278
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.20	88.12%	278
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.20	87.98%	278
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.20	87.98%	278

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.4%3 0.0%mil spec 3.2%milspec 12.2%restricted 0.5%Rare 0.7%Mil Spec 0.1%Mythical 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%Restricted 0.1%violet 0.2%#4b69ff 3.2%uncommon 0.0%blue 1.1%#8847ff 0.4%Uncommon 9.4%#5e98d9 42.5%common 4.7%industrial 18.0%blueLight 1.5%best hit $10.14 (50.70x)