Henhouse

A case on Hellcase (chicken-raise), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

88.06%

EV $0.44 from 161 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.66%

8,432 openings, odds method

Variance

11.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

75.35%±21.131,003 openings

7 days

80.27%±8.096,737 openings

30 days

81.66%±7.218,432 openings

since tracking started

81.66%±7.218,432 openings

53.5%75.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,003	75.35%±21.1	−1.2σ	odds
7d	6,737	80.27%±8.09	−1.9σ	odds
30d	8,432	81.66%±7.21	−1.7σ	odds
All	8,432	81.66%±7.21	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values161 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,444 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$128	0.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$86.44	0.6%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$81.58	0.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$78.94	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$73.22	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$72.45	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$71.48	0.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$70.55	0.5%	0	0.3	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$50.96	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20,000	$39.64	0.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$29.94	0.5%	1	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 12,500	$27.61	0.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$24.56	0.5%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$22.44	0.5%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$22.15	0.5%	1	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,692	$17.23	0.5%	1	1.1	0.91×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$16.63	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$16.23	0.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$15.66	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,143	$15.39	0.5%	2	1.2	1.69×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 6,250	$13.70	0.5%	1	1.4	0.74×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$13.09	0.5%	2	1.4	1.48×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 5,556	$11.91	0.5%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,556	$11.74	0.5%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$11.30	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$11.26	0.5%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$11.06	0.5%	2	1.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$11.03	0.5%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$10.61	0.5%	1	1.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 4,762	$10.21	0.5%	2	1.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$9.17	0.5%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,167	$9.07	0.5%	1	2.0	0.49×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 4,000	$8.79	0.5%	2	2.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 4,000	$8.75	0.5%	3	2.1	1.42×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$8.26	0.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$8.13	0.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$7.56	0.5%	2	2.4	0.82×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 3,448	$7.56	0.5%	0	2.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 3,125	$6.82	0.5%	2	2.7	0.74×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 3,030	$6.73	0.5%	4	2.8	1.44×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$6.47	0.5%	2	2.8	0.72×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$6.37	0.5%	4	2.9	1.39×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 2,778	$6.03	0.5%	3	3.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$6.00	0.5%	0	3.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$5.96	0.5%	5	3.0	1.64×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,703	$5.92	0.5%	2	3.1	0.64×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,703	$5.88	0.5%	1	3.1	0.32×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,439	$5.26	0.5%	6	3.5	1.73×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,439	$5.26	0.5%	0	3.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$5.25	0.5%	4	3.5	1.13×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 2,439	$5.23	0.5%	2	3.5	0.58×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,273	$4.93	0.5%	4	3.7	1.08×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$4.87	0.5%	5	3.7	1.35×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$4.82	0.5%	3	3.8	0.79×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,174	$4.68	0.5%	5	3.9	1.29×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,083	$4.54	0.5%	4	4.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$4.21	0.5%	3	4.3	0.70×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,961	$4.19	0.5%	5	4.3	1.16×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,923	$4.16	0.5%	4	4.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,852	$4.00	0.5%	7	4.6	1.54×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,852	$4.00	0.5%	6	4.6	1.32×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,818	$3.94	0.5%	5	4.6	1.08×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,786	$3.88	0.5%	4	4.7	0.85×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$3.86	0.5%	5	4.7	1.06×
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,786	$3.85	0.5%	3	4.7	0.63×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$3.82	0.5%	4	4.8	0.83×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,695	$3.65	0.5%	3	5.0	0.60×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,613	$3.50	0.5%	5	5.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,587	$3.44	0.5%	4	5.3	0.75×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,515	$3.28	0.5%	3	5.6	0.54×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,515	$3.28	0.5%	8	5.6	1.44×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,493	$3.27	0.5%	8	5.7	1.41×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,493	$3.22	0.5%	4	5.7	0.71×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$3.10	0.5%	6	5.9	1.02×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,282	$2.75	0.5%	9	6.6	1.37×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,235	$2.68	0.5%	4	6.8	0.58×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,176	$2.55	0.5%	4	7.2	0.56×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$2.52	0.5%	5	7.3	0.69×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,163	$2.51	0.5%	5	7.3	0.69×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,149	$2.48	0.5%	11	7.3	1.50×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,124	$2.41	0.5%	10	7.5	1.33×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,099	$2.39	0.5%	10	7.7	1.30×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,053	$2.30	0.5%	5	8.0	0.62×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,020	$2.22	0.5%	5	8.3	0.60×
Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,020	$2.21	0.5%	4	8.3	0.48×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,000	$2.17	0.5%	10	8.4	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 943	$2.05	0.5%	9	9.0	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 870	$1.89	0.5%	11	9.7	1.13×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 855	$1.86	0.5%	5	9.9	0.51×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 840	$1.82	0.5%	8	10.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 833	$1.80	0.5%	5	10.1	0.49×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 806	$1.74	0.5%	7	10.5	0.67×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 787	$1.71	0.5%	13	10.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 725	$1.57	0.5%	18	11.7	1.54×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 719	$1.56	0.5%	8	11.7	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 719	$1.55	0.5%	6	11.7	0.51×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 704	$1.52	0.5%	11	12.0	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 694	$1.51	0.5%	10	12.2	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 667	$1.44	0.5%	13	12.7	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 654	$1.42	0.5%	17	12.9	1.32×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 654	$1.42	0.5%	15	12.9	1.16×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 654	$1.41	0.5%	10	12.9	0.77×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 617	$1.34	0.5%	18	13.7	1.32×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 610	$1.32	0.5%	12	13.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 610	$1.32	0.5%	17	13.8	1.23×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 592	$1.28	0.5%	14	14.3	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 588	$1.27	0.5%	10	14.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	1 in 565	$1.22	0.5%	19	14.9	1.27×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 559	$1.21	0.5%	12	15.1	0.79×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 559	$1.21	0.5%	13	15.1	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 549	$1.19	0.5%	15	15.4	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 546	$1.18	0.5%	21	15.5	1.36×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 543	$1.18	0.5%	12	15.5	0.77×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 521	$1.13	0.5%	22	16.2	1.36×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 508	$1.10	0.5%	11	16.6	0.66×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 503	$1.09	0.5%	16	16.8	0.95×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 481	$1.04	0.5%	13	17.6	0.74×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 469	$1.02	0.5%	11	18.0	0.61×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 463	$1.00	0.5%	19	18.2	1.04×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 435	$0.94	0.5%	23	19.4	1.18×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 424	$0.92	0.5%	12	19.9	0.60×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 412	$0.89	0.5%	20	20.5	0.97×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 369	$0.80	0.5%	27	22.9	1.18×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 365	$0.79	0.5%	25	23.1	1.08×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 356	$0.77	0.5%	16	23.7	0.67×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 295	$0.64	0.5%	43	28.6	1.50×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 230	$0.50	0.5%	35	36.6	0.96×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 217	$0.47	0.5%	33	38.9	0.85×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 212	$0.46	0.5%	106	39.8	2.67×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 212	$0.46	0.5%	47	39.8	1.18×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 208	$0.45	0.5%	53	40.6	1.30×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 83	$0.43	1.2%	104	102.3	1.02×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 77	$0.40	1.2%	100	109.9	0.91×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 71	$0.37	1.2%	137	118.8	1.15×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 71	$0.37	1.2%	128	118.9	1.08×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$0.37	1.2%	99	118.8	0.83×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 71	$0.37	1.2%	119	118.8	1.00×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.36	1.2%	118	122.2	0.97×
AUG \| Luxe Trim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$0.35	1.2%	127	125.6	1.01×
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 67	$0.35	1.2%	119	125.6	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$0.33	1.2%	134	133.3	1.01×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$0.30	1.2%	165	146.6	1.13×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 54	$0.28	1.2%	151	157.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 50	$0.26	1.2%	174	169.1	1.03×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$0.21	1.2%	221	209.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.21	1.2%	196	209.4	0.94×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.17	1.2%	263	258.6	1.02×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.15	1.2%	298	293.2	1.02×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.15	1.2%	324	293.2	1.11×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Destroyer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.14	1.2%	270	314.1	0.86×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.13	1.2%	337	338.4	1.00×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 25	$0.13	1.2%	343	338.4	1.01×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.13	1.2%	323	338.3	0.95×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 25	$0.13	1.2%	367	338.3	1.08×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 23	$0.12	1.2%	358	366.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.12	1.2%	369	366.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.12	1.2%	414	366.5	1.13×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.12	1.2%	381	366.5	1.04×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$0.12	1.2%	344	366.6	0.94×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.10	1.2%	430	439.8	0.98×
MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.09	1.2%	414	488.6	0.85×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/henhouse, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertArlovox58aeusq$0.50$79.77159.5x4d

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covertbagieta77$0.50$70.22140.4x7d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$0.50$30.1560.30x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AUG | Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec[OGC]Chamanoss$0.50$0.460.92x2m

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · RareVynixat0hayn$0.50$0.400.80x18m

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffLehee$0.50$0.370.74x27m

MP5-SD | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · 1Lehee$0.50$0.120.24x27m

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLehee$0.50$0.120.24x30m

M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkLehee$0.50$5.2310.46x31m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecLord_Gaheris$0.50$0.260.52x31m

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Destroyer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecLord_Gaheris$0.50$0.150.30x31m

UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetLord_Gaheris$0.50$1.342.68x31m

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ffLehee$0.50$0.370.74x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$0.50	88.06%	161
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$0.50	88.12%	161
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$0.50	88.19%	161
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.50	88.04%	161
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$0.50	87.95%	161
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$0.50	88.09%	161
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.50	88.05%	161
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.50	88.03%	161
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.50	88.04%	161
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.50	87.93%	161
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.50	87.96%	161

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 8.3%covert 0.0%Classified 0.1%classified 0.8%rare 0.0%restricted 3.3%Legendary 0.2%Mythical 0.7%pink 0.5%milspec 54.6%uncommon 0.1%#d32ee6 0.2%#8847ff 0.6%Restricted 0.1%Rare 3.4%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%violet 1.4%#d32ce6 0.1%common 0.2%blue 11.9%#4b69ff 9.6%mil spec 1.7%Mil Spec 2.0%best hit $79.77 (159.5x)