Keep Quiet

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

88.03%

EV $5.28 from 132 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.34%

5,549 openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.19%±15.85448 openings

7 days

84.36%±4.904,662 openings

30 days

84.34%±4.495,549 openings

since tracking started

84.34%±4.495,549 openings

74.5%91.0%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	448	91.19%±15.9	+0.4σ	odds
7d	4,662	84.36%±4.90	−1.5σ	odds
30d	5,549	84.34%±4.49	−1.6σ	odds
All	5,549	84.34%±4.49	−1.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values132 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,561 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$293	0.9%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$266	1.0%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$150	0.9%	0	1.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$140	0.9%	2	1.9	1.06×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$122	0.9%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,041	$98.80	0.9%	1	2.7	0.37×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$79.26	0.9%	6	3.4	1.74×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$74.03	0.9%	3	3.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$72.59	0.9%	2	3.7	0.54×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$64.34	0.9%	5	4.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 926	$45.18	0.9%	7	6.0	1.17×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 917	$44.45	0.9%	5	6.1	0.82×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 901	$43.69	0.9%	5	6.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 893	$43.64	0.9%	6	6.2	0.96×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 870	$42.25	0.9%	6	6.4	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$41.27	0.9%	3	6.6	0.46×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 840	$40.79	0.9%	5	6.6	0.76×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$40.40	0.9%	10	6.7	1.50×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 820	$39.85	0.9%	4	6.8	0.59×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 813	$39.64	0.9%	6	6.8	0.88×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 800	$38.93	0.9%	3	7.0	0.43×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 800	$38.76	0.9%	7	7.0	1.01×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 709	$34.50	0.9%	8	7.8	1.02×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 704	$34.24	0.9%	10	7.9	1.27×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 671	$32.75	0.9%	7	8.3	0.84×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 505	$24.56	0.9%	9	11.0	0.82×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 498	$24.25	0.9%	13	11.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 461	$22.44	0.9%	13	12.1	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 433	$21.08	0.9%	8	12.8	0.62×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 431	$21.02	0.9%	18	12.9	1.40×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 420	$20.45	0.9%	16	13.2	1.21×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 392	$19.07	0.9%	10	14.2	0.71×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 388	$18.87	0.9%	12	14.3	0.84×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 368	$17.88	0.9%	9	15.1	0.60×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 356	$17.35	0.9%	15	15.6	0.96×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 353	$17.23	0.9%	14	15.7	0.89×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 353	$17.20	0.9%	19	15.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 347	$16.91	0.9%	21	16.0	1.31×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 345	$16.77	0.9%	18	16.1	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 341	$16.63	0.9%	14	16.3	0.86×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 298	$14.49	0.9%	22	18.7	1.18×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 295	$14.36	0.9%	13	18.9	0.69×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 292	$14.17	0.9%	24	19.1	1.26×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 287	$13.94	0.9%	17	19.4	0.88×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 270	$13.09	0.9%	22	20.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 242	$11.74	0.9%	25	23.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 231	$11.26	0.9%	23	24.0	0.96×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 224	$10.91	0.9%	26	24.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 223	$10.83	0.9%	30	25.0	1.20×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 216	$10.53	0.9%	35	25.7	1.36×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 210	$10.21	0.9%	30	26.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 207	$10.04	0.9%	34	26.9	1.26×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 203	$9.88	0.9%	17	27.4	0.62×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 198	$9.63	0.9%	45	28.1	1.60×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 189	$9.20	0.9%	22	29.4	0.75×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 189	$9.18	0.9%	24	29.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 187	$9.07	0.9%	32	29.8	1.07×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 183	$8.91	0.9%	21	30.4	0.69×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 183	$8.89	0.9%	30	30.4	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$8.75	0.9%	34	30.9	1.10×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$8.71	0.9%	31	31.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 174	$8.44	0.9%	22	32.0	0.69×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 170	$8.28	0.9%	35	32.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 167	$8.12	0.9%	34	33.3	1.02×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 166	$8.07	0.9%	33	33.5	0.98×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 163	$7.94	0.9%	30	34.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 162	$7.90	0.9%	33	34.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 162	$7.88	0.9%	23	34.3	0.67×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 159	$7.75	0.9%	29	34.9	0.83×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 155	$7.52	0.9%	40	36.0	1.11×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 152	$7.38	0.9%	42	36.6	1.15×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 150	$7.31	0.9%	37	37.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 150	$7.28	0.9%	38	37.1	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 147	$7.16	0.9%	35	37.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 147	$7.14	0.9%	31	37.9	0.82×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$6.95	0.9%	48	38.9	1.23×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 142	$6.92	0.9%	33	39.1	0.84×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 142	$6.89	0.9%	37	39.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 141	$6.84	0.9%	49	39.5	1.24×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 140	$6.82	0.9%	53	39.7	1.33×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 132	$6.44	0.9%	36	42.0	0.86×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 131	$6.35	0.9%	48	42.6	1.13×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 127	$6.16	0.9%	48	43.9	1.09×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 124	$6.03	0.9%	53	44.8	1.18×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$5.91	0.9%	55	45.8	1.20×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 121	$5.88	0.9%	43	46.0	0.93×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 221	$5.26	0.5%	22	25.2	0.87×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 203	$4.85	0.5%	28	27.4	1.02×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 201	$4.78	0.5%	29	27.7	1.05×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 200	$4.76	0.5%	28	27.9	1.01×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 199	$4.73	0.5%	29	28.0	1.04×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 196	$4.68	0.5%	33	28.3	1.17×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 195	$4.64	0.5%	30	28.5	1.05×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 190	$4.54	0.5%	38	29.2	1.30×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 189	$4.52	0.5%	33	29.4	1.12×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 187	$4.46	0.5%	36	29.8	1.21×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 177	$4.21	0.5%	36	31.5	1.14×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 174	$4.15	0.5%	32	31.9	1.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 172	$4.11	0.5%	27	32.3	0.84×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 169	$4.03	0.5%	25	32.9	0.76×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 169	$4.02	0.5%	31	33.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 168	$4.00	0.5%	32	33.1	0.97×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 166	$3.96	0.5%	32	33.5	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 164	$3.91	0.5%	41	33.9	1.21×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 162	$3.86	0.5%	22	34.3	0.64×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 161	$3.84	0.5%	30	34.5	0.87×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 142	$3.38	0.5%	46	39.2	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 138	$3.28	0.5%	37	40.4	0.92×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 134	$3.19	0.5%	46	41.5	1.11×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 120	$2.86	0.5%	60	46.3	1.30×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$2.61	0.5%	57	50.8	1.12×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$2.29	0.5%	70	57.9	1.21×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$2.07	0.5%	76	64.1	1.19×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 80	$1.90	0.5%	64	69.7	0.92×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 76	$1.82	0.5%	71	72.8	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$1.52	0.5%	73	87.2	0.84×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$1.46	0.5%	74	90.8	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.44	0.5%	101	92.0	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.42	0.5%	81	93.3	0.87×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$1.36	0.5%	113	97.4	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 53	$1.27	0.5%	88	104.4	0.84×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.17	0.5%	111	113.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$1.15	0.5%	120	115.2	1.04×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$1.08	0.5%	124	122.7	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$0.98	0.5%	159	135.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$0.88	0.5%	171	150.6	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$0.66	0.5%	187	200.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$0.64	0.5%	210	207.1	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 26	$0.62	0.5%	204	213.8	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.54	0.5%	214	245.4	0.87×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.47	0.5%	262	282.0	0.93×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 20	$0.47	0.5%	285	282.0	1.01×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/keep-quiet, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTruemperor$6.00$21.023.50x11m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecJlobsta$6.00$0.540.09x12m

StatTrak™ FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalTruemperor$6.00$6.161.03x14m

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedTruemperor$6.00$1.440.24x16m

USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedTruemperor$6.00$4.640.77x17m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecTruemperor$6.00$2.610.44x17m

Glock-18 | Wraiths (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecBog with Dong$6.00$0.540.09x20m

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · ClassifiedBog with Dong$6.00$4.110.69x20m

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3Bog with Dong$6.00$0.470.08x20m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedTreeKs$6.00$0.640.11x22m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	132
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	88.05%	132
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	88.32%	132
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	132
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	132
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	87.95%	132
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	88.00%	132
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	88.00%	132
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	132
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	88.00%	132
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	132

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.9%3 5.1%classified 14.2%covert 0.6%restricted 31.5%Legendary 3.3%red 0.1%Restricted 1.4%Classified 1.9%pink 5.1%Mythical 2.4%#8847ff 3.7%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%violet 8.1%#d32ee6 1.1%blue 0.7%milspec 12.6%mil spec 2.2%#4b69ff 3.6%best hit —