Killjoy

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$18.73

Advertised RTP

87.98%

EV $16.48 from 209 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.91%

117 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

67 openings · below min

30 days

87.91%±23.99117 openings

since tracking started

87.91%±23.99117 openings

-0.5%64.8%130.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	53.98%±75.1	—	odds
7d	67	66.64%±29.8	—	odds
30d	117	87.91%±24.0	+1.0σ	odds
All	117	87.91%±24.0	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values209 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$577	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$545	0.3%	1	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$524	0.3%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$521	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$517	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$417	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$389	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$377	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,667	$376	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$370	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$308	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$286	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$280	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$277	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$231	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$219	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,704	$207	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$206	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$205	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$203	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$197	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 3,448	$187	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$186	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$183	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$183	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 3,333	$180	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$173	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$173	0.3%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$169	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$166	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$164	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 2,941	$163	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$155	0.3%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$155	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$152	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,778	$150	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$146	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$144	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$143	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$141	0.3%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$138	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 2,273	$126	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,273	$125	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$125	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 2,273	$123	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 2,273	$122	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$120	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,222	$119	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$115	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$106	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,887	$103	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$100	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$97.47	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,724	$94.47	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$93.64	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,695	$92.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$90.79	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$90.34	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$90.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$87.02	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$83.72	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$82.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$82.17	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$81.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$81.50	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$81.35	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,493	$81.23	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,493	$81.22	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,471	$80.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$80.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,471	$80.26	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$80.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$79.85	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$79.71	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$79.70	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$79.68	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$79.68	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$79.62	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$76.66	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$76.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$75.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$74.48	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$73.91	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$73.64	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$73.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$72.58	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$72.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$72.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,316	$72.07	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$72.06	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,316	$71.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,299	$70.74	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$70.56	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$70.05	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$70.02	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$69.52	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,266	$69.12	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$68.98	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$68.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,235	$67.53	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$67.19	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,235	$67.17	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$66.77	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,220	$66.64	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$64.92	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,149	$63.19	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,149	$62.47	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 1,124	$61.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$60.34	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$60.09	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$59.23	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$58.80	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$58.65	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$58.57	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$54.88	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$54.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$53.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 980	$53.70	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 980	$53.41	0.3%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 971	$53.17	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$52.21	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$52.15	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 952	$52.02	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 952	$52.00	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 952	$51.95	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$51.43	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 926	$50.66	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 917	$50.37	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 926	$50.29	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$50.28	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$49.63	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 901	$48.93	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 885	$48.37	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 877	$47.67	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 862	$46.85	0.3%	1	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 847	$46.19	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 847	$46.13	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 840	$45.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$45.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 840	$45.76	0.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$45.53	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 820	$44.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 820	$44.52	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 787	$43.19	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 763	$41.78	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$41.62	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$40.32	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 685	$37.30	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$36.34	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 662	$36.21	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 645	$35.30	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 633	$34.53	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 633	$34.52	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 610	$33.34	0.3%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 606	$33.17	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 592	$32.33	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 549	$30.07	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 549	$30.04	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 546	$29.88	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 541	$29.49	0.3%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 532	$29.18	0.3%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 529	$29.00	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 521	$28.55	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 518	$28.16	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 513	$28.00	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 508	$27.79	0.3%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 505	$27.55	0.3%	1	0.2	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 493	$26.81	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 465	$25.42	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 463	$25.32	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 444	$24.32	0.3%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 441	$24.11	0.3%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 439	$23.93	0.3%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 437	$23.84	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 435	$23.73	0.3%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 433	$23.58	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 429	$23.41	0.3%	1	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 427	$23.27	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 417	$22.77	0.3%	1	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 382	$20.88	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$20.79	0.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 380	$20.74	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 339	$18.51	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 323	$17.64	0.3%	1	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 309	$16.84	0.3%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 303	$16.54	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 56	$16.04	1.7%	1	2.1	0.47×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$15.57	1.7%	2	2.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 53	$15.18	1.7%	1	2.2	0.45×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$14.93	1.7%	2	2.3	0.88×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$14.86	1.7%	3	2.3	1.31×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 49	$13.91	1.7%	5	2.4	2.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 46	$13.12	1.7%	2	2.6	0.77×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 44	$12.51	1.7%	0	2.7	0.00×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$10.07	1.7%	3	3.4	0.89×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$9.80	1.7%	4	3.5	1.16×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 34	$9.67	1.7%	6	3.5	1.71×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$9.37	1.7%	6	3.6	1.66×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$8.94	1.7%	3	3.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 25	$7.21	1.7%	2	4.7	0.43×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.13	1.7%	4	4.8	0.84×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$7.00	1.7%	7	4.8	1.44×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$6.80	1.7%	6	5.0	1.20×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$4.99	1.7%	15	6.8	2.21×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$4.18	1.7%	7	8.1	0.86×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$3.98	1.7%	2	8.5	0.23×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$3.83	1.7%	6	8.9	0.68×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$3.69	1.7%	9	9.2	0.98×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/killjoy, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedfggfgfddgffggf$18.73$54529.12x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restrictedKacek :)$5.00$40.208.04x14m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedPoutou le S$22.30$14.020.63x2h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedbongomurzynkongo$55.00$23.090.42x7h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDeVe$22.30$10.220.46x14h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedSAURON$22.30$6.670.30x15h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSAURON$22.30$4.150.19x15h

SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedSAURON$22.30$9.230.41x15h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6MFO$22.30$7.330.33x19h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedEDO$22.30$6.670.30x19h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkEDO$22.30$7.120.32x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$18.73	87.98%	209
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$18.73	87.96%	209

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 36.6%covert 5.8%Ancient 0.1%Covert 0.1%classified 35.1%#d32ee6 4.1%rare 0.0%red 0.2%Classified 2.7%#eb4b4b 0.2%violet 0.2%Legendary 3.2%pink 4.4%#8847ff 7.4%best hit $545 (29.12x)