Lights Out
A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$90.00
Advertised RTP
88.10%
EV $79.29 from 65 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.15%
1,141 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
49.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,141 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/lights-out, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.10%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $90.00 | 88.10% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 15:35 UTC | $90.00 | 88.11% | 65 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $90.00 | 89.21% | 65 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $90.00 | 88.04% | 65 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $90.00 | 88.04% | 65 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $90.00 | 88.03% | 65 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $90.00 | 88.01% | 65 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $90.00 | 88.10% | 65 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $90.00 | 88.07% | 65 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $90.00 | 88.04% | 65 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $90.00 | 88.03% | 65 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 0.0%covert 99.8%legendary 0.0%epic 0.0%restricted 0.0%covert knife 0.0%Covert 0.0%classified 0.0%rare 0.0%best hit $1,303 (14.47x)