Märchen

A case on Hellcase (germany-cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$1.50
Advertised RTP
88.05%
EV $1.32 from 168 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
9.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values168 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50,000$1940.3%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · Ancient1 in 50,000$1910.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1810.4%00.0—
AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 50,000$1710.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 33,333$1690.4%00.0—
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1570.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1500.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1460.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1330.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1280.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1240.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33,333$1210.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$1170.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 25,000$1090.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25,000$99.960.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20,000$98.920.4%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 25,000$95.380.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$86.890.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 16,667$84.600.4%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient1 in 20,000$83.140.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 20,000$81.580.3%00.0—
AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 20,000$81.420.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 20,000$78.940.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 20,000$76.270.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 16,667$73.220.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 16,667$72.450.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 16,667$72.290.3%00.0—
SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 16,667$71.030.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 16,667$70.550.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 16,667$68.350.3%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 14,286$64.550.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 14,286$61.890.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 14,286$61.890.3%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 14,286$55.850.3%00.0—
AWP | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 12,500$55.520.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 12,500$50.960.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 11,111$50.490.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 12,500$49.540.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 12,500$49.180.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 11,111$47.130.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 11,111$46.840.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 11,111$46.490.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$41.800.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$40.640.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 10,000$40.210.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 9,091$38.090.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$35.860.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 8,333$35.410.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 8,333$34.180.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 7,692$33.230.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified1 in 7,692$33.040.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,667$28.150.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 6,250$26.750.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,882$26.200.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$25.460.3%00.0—
USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 5,556$23.540.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,263$21.800.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 5,263$21.660.3%00.0—
SG 553 | Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$21.320.3%00.0—
AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 5,000$21.080.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 4,762$20.530.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 4,762$20.010.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 4,545$19.820.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 4,348$18.980.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 4,348$18.830.3%00.0—
MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.750.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.720.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.490.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.490.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.390.3%00.0—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 4,348$18.100.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 4,167$17.930.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 4,167$17.890.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 3,704$16.120.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 3,704$16.070.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 3,704$15.550.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 3,571$14.970.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 3,571$14.940.3%00.0—
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 3,226$13.660.3%00.0—
AWP | Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,632$11.280.3%00.0—
AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 2,703$11.280.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 2,439$10.380.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 2,439$10.290.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 2,381$10.040.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 2,326$10.040.3%00.0—
SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,381$9.970.3%00.0—
SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 2,273$9.680.3%00.0—
P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 2,222$9.500.3%00.0—
SG 553 | Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,174$9.230.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 2,041$8.830.3%00.0—
MAG-7 | Justice (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$8.570.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,961$8.340.3%00.0—
Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 1,923$8.280.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 1,786$7.510.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,695$7.310.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,695$7.250.3%00.0—
MAG-7 | Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,695$7.160.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,613$6.840.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 1,587$6.790.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,587$6.740.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,562$6.700.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 1,562$6.650.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,562$6.650.3%00.0—
MAG-7 | Justice (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,538$6.540.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,515$6.430.3%00.0—
MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 1,493$6.350.3%00.0—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 1,449$6.150.3%00.0—
P250 | Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 1,429$6.070.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,429$6.070.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,250$5.290.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,163$4.980.3%00.0—
AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,149$4.910.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 1,064$4.530.3%00.0—
P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 1,042$4.400.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 1,031$4.400.3%00.0—
P250 | Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 990$4.250.3%00.0—
P250 | Visions (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 980$4.160.3%00.0—
P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 826$3.520.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 826$3.510.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 820$3.490.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 806$3.440.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 800$3.380.3%00.0—
AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 787$3.340.3%00.0—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 775$3.320.3%00.0—
USP-S | Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 741$3.160.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 746$3.160.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 714$3.030.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 704$3.000.3%00.0—
AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 704$2.980.3%00.0—
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 685$2.920.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 680$2.890.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 629$2.660.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 621$2.640.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 621$2.630.3%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 552$2.350.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 483$2.050.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 465$1.970.3%00.0—
P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 452$1.930.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 446$1.900.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 433$1.840.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 417$1.770.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 412$1.750.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 402$1.710.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 402$1.710.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 376$1.600.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 369$1.570.3%00.0—
P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 365$1.550.3%00.0—
P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 351$1.490.3%00.0—
P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 351$1.490.3%00.0—
M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 346$1.470.3%00.0—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 334$1.420.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Well-Worn)weapon · 31 in 330$1.400.3%00.0—
P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 329$1.400.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 325$1.380.3%00.0—
R8 Revolver | Reboot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 319$1.360.3%00.0—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 317$1.350.3%00.0—
USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$1.324.1%00.0—
USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 22$1.234.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 22$1.194.1%00.0—
USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 20$1.094.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 17$0.954.1%00.0—
USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 17$0.944.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 13$0.714.1%00.0—
Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 12$0.654.1%00.0—
Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 12$0.644.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec10.3%$0.534.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec10.7%$0.514.1%00.0—
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare13.0%$0.424.1%00.0—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/marchen, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC$1.5088.05%168
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.5088.10%168
8 Nov, 06:49 UTC$1.5087.96%168
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC$1.5087.98%168
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$1.5087.81%168
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$1.5087.95%168
3 Nov, 02:05 UTC$1.5087.88%168
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.3%covert 0.1%Ancient 0.0%classified 1.4%epic 0.0%rare 0.0%Classified 0.1%#d32ee6 0.1%red 0.0%Legendary 0.0%pink 0.4%milspec 21.5%mil spec 28.9%Restricted 0.6%#8847ff 1.2%Mythical 1.1%violet 10.5%#4b69ff 5.8%restricted 3.4%Mil Spec Grade 0.3%blue 11.0%uncommon 0.3%Rare 13.0%