Neon Dynasty

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.94%

EV $1.76 from 135 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.20%

699 openings, odds method

Variance

8.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

41 openings · below min

7 days

88.85%±23.27614 openings

30 days

90.20%±21.83699 openings

since tracking started

90.20%±21.83699 openings

65.0%174.5%284.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	41	194.40%±88.9	—	odds
7d	614	88.85%±23.3	+0.1σ	odds
30d	699	90.20%±21.8	+0.2σ	odds
All	699	90.20%±21.8	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values135 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 699 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$263	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 6,667	$145	1.2%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$131	1.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$111	1.3%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$110	1.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 4,545	$104	1.3%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,545	$101	1.3%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$98.06	1.3%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$95.95	1.3%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,571	$80.33	1.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,695	$38.42	1.3%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,538	$35.15	1.3%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 1,493	$33.75	1.3%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,042	$23.49	1.3%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 794	$17.86	1.3%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 649	$14.60	1.3%	2	1.1	1.86×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 629	$14.24	1.3%	2	1.1	1.80×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 610	$13.69	1.3%	1	1.1	0.87×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 592	$13.36	1.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 568	$12.88	1.3%	3	1.2	2.44×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 452	$10.20	1.3%	1	1.5	0.65×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 426	$9.60	1.3%	5	1.6	3.04×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$8.59	1.3%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$8.56	1.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 376	$8.51	1.3%	3	1.9	1.61×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 333	$7.51	1.3%	3	2.1	1.43×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 292	$6.57	1.3%	2	2.4	0.83×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 279	$6.31	1.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 278	$6.28	1.3%	3	2.5	1.19×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 223	$5.03	1.3%	3	3.1	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 218	$4.92	1.3%	6	3.2	1.87×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 210	$4.74	1.3%	3	3.3	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 210	$4.74	1.3%	6	3.3	1.80×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 200	$4.52	1.3%	4	3.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 192	$4.33	1.3%	2	3.6	0.55×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 189	$4.28	1.3%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 188	$4.25	1.3%	7	3.7	1.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 186	$4.20	1.3%	1	3.8	0.27×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 160	$3.62	1.3%	2	4.4	0.46×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 159	$3.60	1.3%	2	4.4	0.46×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 157	$3.54	1.3%	5	4.5	1.12×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 132	$2.98	1.3%	3	5.3	0.57×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 132	$2.98	1.3%	5	5.3	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 129	$2.92	1.3%	7	5.4	1.30×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$2.76	1.3%	4	5.7	0.70×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$2.44	1.3%	8	6.5	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 107	$2.42	1.3%	4	6.5	0.61×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$2.40	1.3%	6	6.6	0.91×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 104	$2.35	1.3%	7	6.7	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 93	$2.09	1.3%	4	7.5	0.53×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$2.05	1.3%	9	7.7	1.17×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 90	$2.04	1.3%	3	7.7	0.39×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$2.02	1.3%	9	7.8	1.15×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 89	$2.02	1.3%	5	7.8	0.64×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 89	$2.01	1.3%	12	7.8	1.53×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 88	$1.99	1.3%	7	7.9	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$1.95	1.3%	6	8.1	0.74×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 85	$1.93	1.3%	15	8.2	1.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$1.90	1.3%	10	8.3	1.20×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 84	$1.89	1.3%	9	8.4	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$1.84	1.3%	7	8.6	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$1.83	1.3%	4	8.6	0.46×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 342	$1.69	0.3%	3	2.0	1.47×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 325	$1.60	0.3%	3	2.2	1.39×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 321	$1.58	0.3%	2	2.2	0.92×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 316	$1.56	0.3%	2	2.2	0.91×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 307	$1.51	0.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 305	$1.50	0.3%	1	2.3	0.44×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 302	$1.49	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 294	$1.45	0.3%	3	2.4	1.26×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 286	$1.41	0.3%	2	2.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 283	$1.40	0.3%	0	2.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 282	$1.39	0.3%	4	2.5	1.61×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 282	$1.39	0.3%	6	2.5	2.42×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 282	$1.39	0.3%	2	2.5	0.81×
Glock-18 \| Weasel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 272	$1.34	0.3%	4	2.6	1.56×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 272	$1.34	0.3%	2	2.6	0.78×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 262	$1.29	0.3%	1	2.7	0.37×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 262	$1.29	0.3%	3	2.7	1.12×
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 251	$1.24	0.3%	2	2.8	0.72×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 248	$1.22	0.3%	3	2.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 246	$1.21	0.3%	3	2.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 243	$1.20	0.3%	4	2.9	1.39×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 241	$1.19	0.3%	7	2.9	2.41×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 227	$1.12	0.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 227	$1.12	0.3%	6	3.1	1.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 227	$1.12	0.3%	4	3.1	1.30×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 223	$1.10	0.3%	2	3.1	0.64×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 221	$1.09	0.3%	5	3.2	1.58×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 217	$1.07	0.3%	1	3.2	0.31×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 215	$1.06	0.3%	5	3.3	1.54×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 209	$1.03	0.3%	2	3.3	0.60×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 209	$1.03	0.3%	2	3.3	0.60×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 203	$1.00	0.3%	2	3.4	0.58×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 199	$0.98	0.3%	4	3.5	1.14×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 197	$0.97	0.3%	6	3.6	1.69×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 191	$0.94	0.3%	4	3.7	1.09×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 187	$0.92	0.3%	4	3.7	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 181	$0.89	0.3%	3	3.9	0.78×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 178	$0.88	0.3%	3	3.9	0.77×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 168	$0.83	0.3%	8	4.2	1.93×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 166	$0.82	0.3%	2	4.2	0.48×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 162	$0.80	0.3%	4	4.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 156	$0.77	0.3%	3	4.5	0.67×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 154	$0.76	0.3%	11	4.5	2.42×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 150	$0.74	0.3%	5	4.7	1.07×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 150	$0.74	0.3%	3	4.7	0.64×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 150	$0.74	0.3%	8	4.7	1.72×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 148	$0.73	0.3%	5	4.7	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 146	$0.72	0.3%	4	4.8	0.84×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 146	$0.72	0.3%	5	4.8	1.04×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 144	$0.71	0.3%	3	4.9	0.62×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 136	$0.67	0.3%	2	5.1	0.39×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 136	$0.67	0.3%	4	5.1	0.78×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 136	$0.67	0.3%	8	5.1	1.56×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 132	$0.65	0.3%	7	5.3	1.32×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 97	$0.48	0.3%	8	7.2	1.11×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 95	$0.47	0.3%	7	7.3	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 89	$0.44	0.3%	7	7.8	0.89×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 87	$0.43	0.3%	7	8.0	0.87×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 81	$0.40	0.3%	6	8.6	0.70×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 75	$0.37	0.3%	9	9.3	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 75	$0.37	0.3%	10	9.3	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$0.36	0.3%	8	9.6	0.84×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.34	0.3%	8	10.1	0.79×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.33	0.3%	14	10.4	1.34×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.33	0.3%	11	10.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$0.28	0.3%	10	12.3	0.81×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$0.21	0.3%	20	16.4	1.22×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$0.14	0.3%	21	24.6	0.85×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.14	0.3%	23	24.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 26	$0.13	0.3%	21	26.5	0.79×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.12	0.3%	28	28.7	0.98×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 24	$0.12	0.3%	38	28.7	1.32×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 24	$0.12	0.3%	28	28.7	0.98×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/neon-dynasty, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecyan*$2.00$0.140.07x15h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecyan*$2.00$0.280.14x15h

USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedyan*$2.00$0.760.38x15h

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecPHXoo$2.00$0.130.07x17h

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKAMISIMA$2.00$95.9547.98x17h

P250 | Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue𝙹𝚞𝚕𝚊𝚢シ$2.00$0.370.19x18h

M4A4 | Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specberkatos$2.00$0.330.17x19h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil speczozolpl17 HW69.PL$2.00$1.900.95x19h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedzozolpl17 HW69.PL$2.00$2.441.22x19h

Tec-9 | Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · milspeczozolpl17 HW69.PL$2.00$1.840.92x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.94%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$2.00	87.94%	135
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.00	88.30%	135
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.00	88.07%	135
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.00	87.94%	135
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.00	88.03%	135
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$2.00	88.00%	135
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.00	88.03%	135
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$2.00	87.96%	135
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$2.00	87.99%	135
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.00	88.01%	135
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.00	87.94%	135

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.4%covert 0.1%Covert 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%Ancient 0.0%Restricted 0.1%restricted 15.5%violet 4.1%mil spec 18.4%Mythical 2.4%milspec 31.9%blue 6.4%Rare 2.3%#8847ff 1.8%Mil Spec Grade 5.2%Mil Spec 1.2%#4b69ff 10.1%best hit —