Nothing Weird

A case on Hellcase (event), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$21.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $18.48 from 129 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.39%

1,206 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.42%±27.31104 openings

7 days

87.44%±8.701,016 openings

30 days

86.39%±7.981,206 openings

since tracking started

86.39%±7.981,206 openings

51.5%79.5%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	104	79.42%±27.3	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,016	87.44%±8.70	−0.1σ	odds
30d	1,206	86.39%±7.98	−0.4σ	odds
All	1,206	86.39%±7.98	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$374	0.6%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$361	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,857	$309	0.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$243	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$232	0.6%	1	0.6	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$214	0.6%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$214	0.6%	0	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,923	$212	0.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$193	0.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$192	0.6%	0	0.7	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,639	$179	0.6%	2	0.7	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,613	$178	0.6%	1	0.7	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$175	0.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,562	$171	0.6%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$167	0.6%	1	0.8	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$164	0.6%	1	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$162	0.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$158	0.6%	2	0.8	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$158	0.6%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$151	0.6%	2	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$150	0.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,351	$150	0.6%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$143	0.6%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$142	0.6%	1	0.9	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$139	0.6%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$138	0.6%	0	1.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$135	0.6%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$131	0.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$131	0.6%	1	1.0	0.99×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,163	$129	0.6%	1	1.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$129	0.6%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$124	0.6%	1	1.1	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,099	$121	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,099	$120	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$118	0.6%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,053	$116	0.6%	1	1.1	0.87×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,042	$114	0.6%	2	1.2	1.72×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$112	0.6%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$110	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$110	0.6%	2	1.2	1.66×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 971	$106	0.6%	1	1.2	0.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 877	$96.35	0.6%	2	1.4	1.45×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 847	$93.45	0.6%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 847	$92.48	0.6%	1	1.4	0.70×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 833	$91.25	0.6%	1	1.4	0.69×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 781	$86.32	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 746	$81.97	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 741	$81.63	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 735	$81.37	0.6%	0	1.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 735	$80.66	0.6%	1	1.6	0.61×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 735	$80.61	0.6%	2	1.6	1.22×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.60	0.6%	2	1.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$80.52	0.6%	3	1.7	1.81×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 730	$80.39	0.6%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$79.96	0.6%	2	1.7	1.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 719	$79.32	0.6%	2	1.7	1.19×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 719	$79.25	0.6%	3	1.7	1.79×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 685	$75.66	0.6%	3	1.8	1.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 629	$69.28	0.6%	3	1.9	1.56×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$68.80	0.6%	2	1.9	1.03×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 610	$67.19	0.6%	2	2.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 606	$66.69	0.6%	2	2.0	1.00×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 602	$66.43	0.6%	2	2.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 602	$66.14	0.6%	3	2.0	1.50×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 592	$64.96	0.6%	1	2.0	0.49×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 562	$61.76	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 559	$61.54	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 559	$61.53	0.6%	3	2.2	1.39×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 556	$61.19	0.6%	2	2.2	0.92×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 552	$60.82	0.6%	3	2.2	1.37×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 535	$58.72	0.6%	4	2.3	1.77×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 532	$58.61	0.6%	4	2.3	1.76×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$55.31	0.6%	1	2.4	0.42×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 478	$52.39	0.6%	2	2.5	0.79×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$52.37	0.6%	1	2.5	0.39×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 465	$51.13	0.6%	3	2.6	1.16×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 452	$49.78	0.6%	2	2.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 431	$47.29	0.6%	6	2.8	2.14×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 422	$46.45	0.6%	4	2.9	1.40×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 418	$45.96	0.6%	6	2.9	2.08×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 410	$45.02	0.6%	2	2.9	0.68×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$44.96	0.6%	1	3.0	0.34×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 402	$44.03	0.6%	5	3.0	1.66×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 398	$43.89	0.6%	3	3.0	0.99×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 389	$42.84	0.6%	9	3.1	2.90×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 388	$42.54	0.6%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 380	$41.80	0.6%	6	3.2	1.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 376	$41.27	0.6%	3	3.2	0.93×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 364	$40.03	0.6%	1	3.3	0.30×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 364	$40.00	0.6%	2	3.3	0.60×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 362	$39.87	0.6%	2	3.3	0.60×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 360	$39.61	0.6%	3	3.4	0.89×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$38.70	0.6%	6	3.4	1.75×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$38.70	0.6%	3	3.4	0.87×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 346	$38.05	0.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 326	$35.80	0.6%	7	3.7	1.89×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 319	$35.17	0.6%	0	3.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 308	$33.77	0.6%	7	3.9	1.78×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 279	$30.79	0.6%	6	4.3	1.39×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 262	$28.92	0.6%	4	4.6	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 257	$28.27	0.6%	3	4.7	0.64×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 244	$26.84	0.6%	5	4.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 242	$26.51	0.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 239	$26.26	0.6%	5	5.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 198	$21.80	0.6%	7	6.1	1.15×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 197	$21.69	0.6%	7	6.1	1.14×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$21.22	0.6%	4	6.3	0.64×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 187	$20.48	0.6%	11	6.5	1.70×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 182	$20.01	0.6%	6	6.6	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 175	$19.21	0.6%	13	6.9	1.88×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 173	$19.05	0.6%	10	7.0	1.43×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 171	$18.83	0.6%	19	7.1	2.69×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 171	$18.83	0.6%	5	7.1	0.71×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 170	$18.72	0.6%	15	7.1	2.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$17.93	2.1%	24	26.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$17.62	2.1%	26	27.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 42	$16.60	2.1%	22	28.8	0.76×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 42	$16.56	2.1%	24	28.9	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 28	$11.01	2.1%	47	43.5	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$10.27	2.1%	56	46.6	1.20×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 21	$8.31	2.1%	62	57.6	1.08×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$7.99	2.1%	61	59.9	1.02×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$7.83	2.1%	58	61.1	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$7.02	2.1%	65	68.2	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$7.00	2.1%	51	68.4	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$6.56	2.1%	77	73.0	1.06×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$4.53	2.1%	99	105.7	0.94×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 10	$3.98	2.1%	115	120.3	0.96×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	10.2%	$3.87	2.1%	121	123.7	0.98×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/nothing-weird, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4bTruemperor$21.00$42.542.03x19m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkTruemperor$21.00$3.980.19x27m

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkΣПDI$21.00$3.980.19x27m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertGegeCorp$21.00$30.791.47x2h

M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covertЗвук дали президе$21.00$38.701.84x2h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLa Caillette"$21.00$17.620.84x3h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLa Caillette"$21.00$10.270.49x3h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLa Caillette"$21.00$7.990.38x3h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedSakahi$21.00$7.000.33x4h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkBest$21.00$3.870.18x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$21.00	88.01%	129
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$21.00	87.98%	129
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$21.00	87.91%	129
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	129
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	129
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$21.00	88.01%	129
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$21.00	88.00%	129
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	129
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$21.00	88.00%	129
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$21.00	88.00%	129
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$21.00	87.99%	129

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 50.7%covert knife 0.0%covert 8.5%#eb4b4b 0.8%red 1.9%Covert 0.7%Ancient 0.8%pink 27.3%Legendary 6.4%#d32ee6 2.9%best hit —