Opulent Treasures

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$132.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $116.16 from 91 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.47%

50 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

22 openings · below min

7 days

36 openings · below min

30 days

50 openings · below min

since tracking started

50 openings · below min

21.5%72.8%124.0%

Small sample. 50 openings and 8.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	22	70.73%±48.8	—	odds
7d	36	86.80%±36.3	—	odds
30d	50	91.47%±31.3	—	odds
All	50	91.47%±31.3	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values91 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 50 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$3,265	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$2,143	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$1,762	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$1,689	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$1,572	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$1,556	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 1,786	$1,432	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$1,423	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$1,083	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$1,072	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$1,064	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,190	$961	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,075	$867	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 1,053	$846	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$807	0.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 990	$799	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 990	$797	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 980	$784	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 971	$775	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 826	$659	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 709	$569	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 676	$542	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 671	$538	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 645	$518	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 621	$499	0.7%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 621	$499	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 613	$495	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 588	$473	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 585	$469	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 578	$464	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 578	$462	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 575	$461	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 552	$443	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 546	$438	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$402	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 490	$394	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 485	$389	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 483	$389	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · legendary	1 in 463	$370	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 461	$370	0.7%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 450	$361	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 408	$326	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 362	$291	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 355	$285	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 355	$284	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 346	$277	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 340	$273	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 334	$268	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 303	$243	0.7%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 292	$235	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 285	$228	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 281	$226	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 278	$223	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 267	$214	0.7%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 265	$212	0.7%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 245	$196	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 243	$195	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 233	$187	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 229	$183	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 228	$183	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 228	$183	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 226	$181	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$178	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 221	$178	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 220	$176	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 215	$172	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 210	$168	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 209	$168	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 193	$155	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 188	$151	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 188	$150	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 179	$144	0.7%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 173	$139	0.7%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 169	$136	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 158	$127	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 153	$122	0.7%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 151	$121	0.7%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 146	$117	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 27	$112	3.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 27	$111	3.5%	1	1.9	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$111	3.5%	1	1.9	0.54×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$102	3.5%	1	2.0	0.49×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$97.94	3.5%	1	2.1	0.48×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$83.51	3.5%	4	2.5	1.62×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$79.97	3.5%	3	2.6	1.16×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 19	$78.74	3.5%	2	2.6	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$54.05	3.5%	5	3.8	1.31×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 12	$49.75	3.5%	3	4.1	0.72×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 12	$47.87	3.5%	4	4.3	0.93×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$44.93	3.5%	7	4.6	1.53×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	10.2%	$40.54	3.5%	4	5.1	0.79×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/opulent-treasures, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covertEmrys$150$5693.80x4d

AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6miguel$150$5353.57x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covertamonchan100$132$78.740.60x26m

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertpisika$132$49.750.38x31m

P250 | Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6pisika$132$40.540.31x31m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertpisika$132$4953.75x31m

P250 | Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6pisika$132$40.540.31x31m

P250 | Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedpisika$132$44.930.34x31m

M4A1-S | Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedPH3NIX$132$1110.84x5h

P250 | Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedPH3NIX$132$44.930.34x5h

AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedkronyii$132$80.180.61x6h

M4A4 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBassam Teli Assad$132$1551.17x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$132	88.00%	91
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$132	87.98%	91
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$126	87.99%	91
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$126	88.01%	91

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 31.7%covert 39.2%legendary 0.3%rare 0.1%covert knife 1.3%#d32ee6 1.2%#ffd700 0.2%Ancient 0.2%pink 13.9%epic 0.5%Classified 0.6%red 0.7%#d32ce6 10.2%best hit $569 (3.80x)