Overpass Collection
A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$4.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $3.52 from 76 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.99%
388 openings, odds method
Variance
6.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 22
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values76 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/overpass-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $4.00 | 88.00% | 76 |
| 10 Nov, 09:02 UTC | $4.00 | 87.99% | 76 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.00 | 88.00% | 76 |
| 8 Nov, 13:32 UTC | $4.00 | 87.99% | 76 |
| 7 Nov, 12:18 UTC | $4.00 | 87.99% | 76 |
| 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC | $4.00 | 88.00% | 76 |
| 5 Nov, 10:45 UTC | $4.00 | 88.01% | 76 |
| 4 Nov, 15:04 UTC | $4.00 | 87.98% | 76 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.00 | 88.01% | 76 |
| 2 Nov, 21:49 UTC | $4.00 | 87.99% | 76 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%Ancient 0.1%covert 0.2%rare 2.8%pink 2.7%uncommon 9.2%#d32ce6 1.3%Mythical 7.5%restricted 4.3%Rare 0.8%violet 0.3%milspec 4.1%blueLight 4.7%Uncommon 5.6%#5e98d9 28.6%industrial 23.2%blue 1.6%#4b69ff 3.1%best hit —