Overtime 2026

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 10 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$41.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $36.07 from 119 items

Observed RTP, 30d

32.30%

2 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

2 openings · below min

30 days

2 openings · below min

since tracking started

2 openings · below min

-0.5%105.8%212.0%

Small sample. 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	32.30%±178.8	—	odds
7d	2	32.30%±178.8	—	odds
30d	2	32.30%±178.8	—	odds
All	2	32.30%±178.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values119 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,778	$770	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$530	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 1,695	$467	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$465	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,639	$449	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,613	$439	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$402	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$389	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$375	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$358	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$343	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,176	$322	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,163	$317	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,149	$317	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,031	$285	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$277	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 885	$243	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 758	$207	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 735	$203	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$196	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 699	$192	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 699	$192	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 629	$173	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 613	$168	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 599	$165	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 585	$161	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 565	$156	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 565	$155	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 552	$152	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$145	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 524	$144	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 521	$143	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 515	$142	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 510	$140	0.8%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 505	$139	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 457	$125	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 448	$123	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 439	$121	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$112	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 405	$111	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 403	$111	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 391	$107	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 379	$104	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 362	$99.67	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 358	$98.55	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 357	$98.35	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 344	$94.46	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 342	$94.23	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 340	$93.56	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 311	$85.22	0.8%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 310	$85.21	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 309	$84.88	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 305	$83.76	0.8%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 303	$83.51	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 303	$83.24	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 301	$83.09	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 299	$82.24	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 295	$80.93	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 293	$80.74	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 290	$79.76	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 288	$79.28	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 287	$79.14	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 286	$78.61	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 283	$77.82	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 274	$75.23	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 271	$74.66	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 267	$73.36	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$72.47	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$72.24	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 258	$71.09	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 258	$71.02	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 254	$70.14	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$68.81	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 249	$68.53	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 248	$68.19	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 243	$66.88	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 242	$66.53	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 235	$64.64	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$55.00	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 190	$52.46	0.8%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 190	$52.27	0.8%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 190	$52.21	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 186	$51.03	0.8%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 174	$47.87	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$46.92	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 169	$46.44	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 165	$45.37	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 164	$45.07	0.8%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 163	$44.93	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 161	$44.14	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 156	$42.84	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 150	$41.37	0.8%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 149	$41.06	0.8%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 147	$40.54	0.8%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 146	$40.02	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 133	$36.57	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 86	$36.04	1.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 85	$35.93	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 85	$35.83	1.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 73	$30.81	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 71	$30.05	1.2%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$24.27	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 46	$19.54	1.2%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$18.98	1.2%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$18.82	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$17.88	1.2%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 42	$17.85	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$17.39	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$17.30	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 39	$16.23	1.2%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$14.72	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 34	$14.24	1.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$12.28	1.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.45	1.2%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$8.65	1.2%	0	0.2	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$8.54	1.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$6.34	1.2%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$6.04	1.2%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.84	1.2%	0	0.3	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/overtime-2026, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedButt_Fcker_5000$41.00$14.210.35x7h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedButt_Fcker_5000$41.00$12.280.30x7h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedPhortus$41.00$17.960.44x11h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertEzio$41.00$85.222.08x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$41.00	87.99%	119
11 Nov, 03:46 UTC	$41.00	88.00%	119

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 16.8%red 5.1%Covert 0.6%Ancient 2.2%rare 1.7%Classified 2.8%classified 53.1%pink 10.4%#eb4b4b 0.7%#d32ce6 0.7%Legendary 1.4%#d32ee6 4.6%best hit —