Panda Knife

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$180.00

Advertised RTP

91.99%

EV $165.59 from 268 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.87%

18 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

16 openings · below min

30 days

18 openings · below min

since tracking started

18 openings · below min

41.0%87.0%133.0%

Small sample. 18 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	16	86.94%±45.4	—	odds
30d	18	85.87%±42.7	—	odds
All	18	85.87%±42.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values268 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$4,891	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,562	$1,007	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,471	$943	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,351	$868	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 1,266	$819	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,235	$791	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,190	$775	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,190	$774	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,176	$763	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,176	$757	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,176	$754	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,163	$752	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,149	$751	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,149	$750	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,149	$748	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,136	$736	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,124	$730	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,075	$694	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,064	$685	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,053	$684	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 1,010	$659	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$652	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$647	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 990	$638	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 980	$638	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 990	$637	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 980	$634	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 980	$633	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 971	$625	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 962	$623	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 962	$622	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 952	$616	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 926	$597	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 917	$596	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 917	$593	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 909	$587	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 909	$585	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 901	$581	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 893	$574	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 885	$574	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 877	$567	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 870	$563	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 855	$554	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 855	$553	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 833	$538	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 833	$538	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 833	$537	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 813	$527	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 813	$523	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 806	$521	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 806	$520	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 800	$519	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 800	$517	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 787	$508	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 781	$507	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 775	$501	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 769	$497	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 758	$488	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 746	$485	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 741	$478	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 735	$478	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 730	$472	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 725	$468	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 719	$468	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 719	$464	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 714	$462	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 704	$453	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 690	$447	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 690	$445	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 685	$442	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 680	$441	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 671	$434	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 671	$433	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$432	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 662	$428	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 654	$422	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 649	$420	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 649	$419	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 645	$418	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 637	$413	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 633	$410	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 629	$408	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 629	$405	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 621	$401	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 617	$399	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 613	$396	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 602	$391	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 588	$382	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 571	$368	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 562	$364	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 556	$359	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 552	$358	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 541	$350	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 541	$349	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 529	$341	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 515	$333	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 505	$326	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 498	$322	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 498	$321	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 490	$317	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 474	$305	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 463	$299	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 448	$291	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 417	$269	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 417	$268	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 413	$268	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 413	$267	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 410	$265	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$259	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 394	$255	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 379	$245	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 373	$241	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 373	$241	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 369	$238	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 364	$236	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 365	$236	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 362	$234	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 346	$224	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 339	$220	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 337	$218	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 332	$214	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 330	$214	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 324	$209	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 323	$209	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 323	$209	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 322	$208	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 316	$205	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 312	$202	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 309	$200	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 306	$198	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 303	$196	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 302	$196	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 299	$194	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 295	$191	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 295	$191	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 293	$190	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 292	$188	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 291	$188	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 288	$187	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 286	$185	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 285	$184	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 283	$183	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$183	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 282	$183	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$180	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 277	$179	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 276	$178	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 275	$178	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 275	$178	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 273	$177	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 273	$176	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 271	$175	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 268	$174	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 268	$173	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 268	$173	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 267	$173	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 266	$172	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 266	$172	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 265	$171	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$169	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$168	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$168	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 258	$167	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 283	$162	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 280	$161	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$160	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$160	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 275	$158	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 275	$158	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 274	$157	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 272	$156	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$155	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$155	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$155	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 267	$153	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 266	$152	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 265	$152	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 265	$152	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 264	$151	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$150	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 260	$149	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 258	$148	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 256	$147	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 254	$146	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 254	$146	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 253	$145	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 249	$143	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$143	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 248	$142	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 246	$141	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 238	$137	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 235	$135	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 228	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 226	$129	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 223	$128	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 222	$127	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 221	$126	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 211	$121	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 207	$118	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 201	$115	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 192	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 191	$110	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$109	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$107	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 185	$106	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 182	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$104	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 180	$103	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 170	$97.46	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 169	$96.87	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$95.92	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 165	$94.75	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 165	$94.60	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 160	$91.49	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 159	$91.28	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$89.90	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 156	$89.78	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 156	$89.10	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 155	$88.89	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$88.39	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 153	$87.66	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 153	$87.64	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 149	$85.68	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 147	$84.45	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$84.18	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$83.85	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$83.05	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 144	$82.53	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 142	$81.48	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 141	$80.61	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 140	$80.42	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$80.41	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$80.26	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$79.20	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 136	$77.91	0.3%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 135	$77.34	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 135	$77.30	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 130	$74.70	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 129	$74.24	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 129	$73.77	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$72.72	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 126	$72.39	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 123	$70.66	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 121	$69.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 121	$69.27	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118	$67.88	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 118	$67.71	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$67.59	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$67.28	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 117	$66.99	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 116	$66.55	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 115	$66.13	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 115	$65.88	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 114	$65.17	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 110	$63.24	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 108	$61.81	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$60.97	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$60.54	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 105	$60.49	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$60.49	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$55.68	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$55.46	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 95	$54.35	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 89	$51.02	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 88	$50.57	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$47.63	0.3%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 82	$47.00	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 80	$46.10	0.3%	0	0.2	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/pandaknife, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertAniel$55.00$2133.87x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeFapseN$180$4642.58x1d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeFapseN$180$2241.24x1d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeFISH$180$1640.91x3d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBleyk$180$58.990.33x3d

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covertErlyx II$180$47.820.27x3d

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife800+$180$1831.02x4d

★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeEDO$180$1740.97x4d

★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$180$55.680.31x5d

★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeCode: BLAUDY (Free Cases + $$$)$180$2301.28x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$180	91.99%	268
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$180	92.02%	268
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$180	92.00%	268
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$180	91.99%	268
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$180	92.00%	268
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$180	92.00%	268
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$180	92.00%	268
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$180	91.99%	268
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$180	91.99%	268
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$180	91.93%	268
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$180	92.00%	268
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$180	92.01%	268

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.1%gold 3.1%covert knife 58.3%Covert 1.1%sunny 2.9%#ffd700 1.8%Immortal 1.6%best hit —