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A case on Hellcase (poland-cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

87.95%

EV $0.44 from 153 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

17.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values153 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50,000	$127	0.6%	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50,000	$110	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$98.92	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$92.79	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$80.70	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50,000	$80.27	0.4%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$66.28	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$62.64	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$59.54	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$59.32	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33,333	$55.73	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$54.08	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$53.32	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 25,000	$49.54	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$49.36	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$48.68	0.3%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 20,000	$41.43	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$39.84	0.5%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 25,000	$38.73	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20,000	$38.42	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$35.86	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$35.78	0.4%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$35.50	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$35.25	0.4%	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 16,667	$35.15	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 16,667	$34.98	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$33.75	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$33.45	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 16,667	$32.94	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$30.78	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 14,286	$30.61	0.5%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$30.26	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 14,286	$26.19	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$26.14	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$25.83	0.5%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$25.09	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$23.89	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$23.62	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$19.82	0.5%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$19.13	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$18.65	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$18.60	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$18.49	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$17.86	0.4%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$17.01	0.5%	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$16.99	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$16.55	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$16.27	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$16.12	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$15.94	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$15.79	0.5%	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$14.02	0.4%	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,143	$13.36	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$13.31	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$12.49	0.5%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$11.27	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$11.13	0.4%	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$10.50	0.4%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,556	$10.33	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,263	$10.20	0.4%	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$9.69	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$9.48	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$9.33	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$9.15	0.4%	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 4,762	$8.94	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$8.54	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$8.51	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,000	$7.80	0.4%	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,448	$6.53	0.4%	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$6.23	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,030	$5.78	0.4%	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 2,632	$5.03	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$4.86	0.4%	—
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$4.82	0.4%	—
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 2,500	$4.76	0.4%	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$4.75	0.4%	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,500	$4.73	0.4%	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,222	$4.20	0.4%	—
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$3.64	0.4%	—
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,852	$3.50	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,818	$3.49	0.4%	—
Galil AR \| Control (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,562	$2.94	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,471	$2.78	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$2.59	0.4%	—
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$2.52	0.4%	—
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,205	$2.30	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,149	$2.18	0.4%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 980	$1.86	0.4%	—
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 952	$1.82	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 917	$1.74	0.4%	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 847	$1.62	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 758	$1.44	0.4%	—
AUG \| Creep (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 694	$1.32	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 645	$1.23	0.4%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 645	$1.23	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$1.19	0.4%	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 621	$1.18	0.4%	—
Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 617	$1.18	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 617	$1.18	0.4%	—
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 621	$1.18	0.4%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 568	$1.08	0.4%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 541	$1.03	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 515	$0.98	0.4%	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 498	$0.95	0.4%	—
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 483	$0.92	0.4%	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 483	$0.92	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 446	$0.85	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 437	$0.83	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 410	$0.78	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 405	$0.77	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 377	$0.72	0.4%	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 373	$0.71	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 373	$0.71	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 369	$0.70	0.4%	—
Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 337	$0.64	0.4%	—
Galil AR \| Control (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 337	$0.64	0.4%	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 284	$0.54	0.4%	—
Galil AR \| Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 283	$0.54	0.4%	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 279	$0.53	0.4%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 273	$0.52	0.4%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 273	$0.52	0.4%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 262	$0.50	0.4%	—
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 263	$0.50	0.4%	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 252	$0.48	0.4%	—
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 253	$0.48	0.4%	—
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 247	$0.47	0.4%	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 57	$0.42	1.7%	—
AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 55	$0.41	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 54	$0.40	1.7%	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.38	1.7%	—
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$0.37	1.7%	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.35	1.7%	—
USP-S \| Silent Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare	1 in 47	$0.35	1.7%	—
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 42	$0.31	1.7%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$0.30	1.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 32	$0.24	1.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.23	1.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$0.23	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$0.23	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.22	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.22	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.21	1.7%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
AUG \| Creep (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
AUG \| Creep (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	1.7%	—
AUG \| Creep (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.18	1.7%	—
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 24	$0.18	1.7%	—
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$0.16	1.7%	—
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$0.12	1.7%	—
SSG 08 \| Memorial (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$0.12	1.7%	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/podroz, 10 Nov, 02:23 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$0.50	87.95%	153
8 Nov, 19:58 UTC	$0.50	88.10%	153
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.50	87.98%	153
6 Nov, 05:20 UTC	$0.50	88.25%	153
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$0.50	88.28%	153
3 Nov, 10:07 UTC	$0.50	88.21%	153
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.50	88.64%	153

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 0.5%covert 0.0%restricted 1.9%Classified 0.0%red 0.0%Restricted 0.3%#d32ee6 0.1%#d32ce6 0.0%pink 0.0%Mythical 1.7%blue 20.2%violet 2.4%Rare 10.6%#8847ff 1.2%Legendary 0.1%#4b69ff 27.0%uncommon 0.2%milspec 33.6%