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A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$31.08

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $27.35 from 215 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.12%

317 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

27 openings · below min

7 days

85.43%±20.93203 openings

30 days

91.12%±17.47317 openings

since tracking started

91.12%±17.47317 openings

-0.5%54.3%109.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	27	34.65%±59.5	—	odds
7d	203	85.43%±20.9	+1.2σ	odds
30d	317	91.12%±17.5	+1.7σ	odds
All	317	91.12%±17.5	+1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values215 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 317 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$2,007	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$1,762	0.5%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 7,692	$920	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$767	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$739	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$723	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$654	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$639	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$588	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$584	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$465	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$462	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$447	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$411	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$405	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$390	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$383	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$372	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$367	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$360	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 3,030	$356	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$346	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$329	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$318	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,703	$314	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$307	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$305	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$305	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$301	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$293	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$280	0.4%	1	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,381	$277	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,381	$274	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,381	$273	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$272	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$253	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,174	$249	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$244	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$242	0.4%	2	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$241	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$225	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$224	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,961	$224	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$222	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$215	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,786	$206	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,754	$206	0.4%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$203	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$203	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$201	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,639	$190	0.4%	1	0.2	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$184	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$183	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$183	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$181	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$179	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,538	$176	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$174	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$170	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$170	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$168	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,449	$168	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$165	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$165	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,408	$165	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$159	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$158	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,370	$157	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,351	$157	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,333	$153	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,316	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,316	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,316	$152	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$150	0.4%	1	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,282	$149	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$149	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,282	$148	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$147	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,282	$147	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$146	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,266	$146	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$145	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$144	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$144	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,235	$144	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,235	$143	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$141	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$141	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,205	$141	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$139	0.4%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$138	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,190	$138	0.4%	1	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,176	$136	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$136	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,163	$135	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,163	$134	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$130	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$129	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 1,111	$128	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,099	$127	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$123	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,064	$123	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,020	$118	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,010	$117	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$116	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$115	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 971	$113	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$112	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 962	$112	0.4%	2	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 962	$112	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 971	$112	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 962	$111	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 952	$110	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 943	$110	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 935	$109	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 926	$107	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 901	$104	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 885	$103	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 877	$101	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 870	$101	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 862	$101	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 862	$99.71	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 862	$99.53	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 855	$98.47	0.4%	1	0.4	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 704	$81.50	0.4%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 699	$80.84	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 690	$80.00	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 685	$79.54	0.4%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 680	$78.93	0.4%	2	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 658	$76.46	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 645	$74.67	0.4%	2	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 641	$74.03	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 637	$73.38	0.4%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 633	$73.21	0.4%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 629	$72.58	0.4%	1	0.5	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 562	$64.86	0.4%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 513	$59.62	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 476	$55.20	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 450	$52.02	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 395	$45.76	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 369	$42.68	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 356	$41.16	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 324	$37.45	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 318	$36.81	0.4%	2	1.0	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 317	$36.70	0.4%	0	1.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 316	$36.60	0.4%	2	1.0	2.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 315	$36.58	0.4%	1	1.0	1.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$36.36	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$35.08	0.4%	2	1.0	1.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 299	$34.53	0.4%	2	1.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 298	$34.52	0.4%	2	1.1	1.88×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 288	$33.32	0.4%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 260	$30.07	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 258	$29.88	0.4%	3	1.2	2.45×
P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 251	$29.11	0.4%	2	1.3	1.59×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 166	$26.55	0.6%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 158	$25.42	0.6%	1	2.0	0.50×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 149	$23.84	0.6%	5	2.1	2.34×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$23.03	0.6%	1	2.2	0.45×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 141	$22.62	0.6%	1	2.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 137	$22.00	0.6%	2	2.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 135	$21.63	0.6%	1	2.4	0.43×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 131	$20.97	0.6%	3	2.4	1.24×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$20.89	0.6%	0	2.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 129	$20.74	0.6%	2	2.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 129	$20.73	0.6%	2	2.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 128	$20.60	0.6%	2	2.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 118	$19.01	0.6%	2	2.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 110	$17.64	0.6%	4	2.9	1.39×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 103	$16.54	0.6%	2	3.1	0.65×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$14.93	0.6%	5	3.4	1.47×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$14.86	0.6%	4	3.4	1.17×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$14.62	0.6%	4	3.5	1.15×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$14.48	0.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 86	$13.87	0.6%	5	3.7	1.36×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 86	$13.72	0.6%	4	3.7	1.08×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$13.38	0.6%	2	3.8	0.53×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$13.19	0.6%	3	3.9	0.78×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 82	$13.12	0.6%	1	3.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 81	$13.08	0.6%	4	3.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 78	$12.51	0.6%	8	4.1	1.97×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$12.31	0.6%	4	4.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 76	$12.12	0.6%	3	4.2	0.71×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 69	$11.10	0.6%	5	4.6	1.09×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$11.05	0.6%	3	4.6	0.65×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$10.57	0.6%	1	4.8	0.21×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 65	$10.44	0.6%	4	4.9	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 63	$10.14	0.6%	5	5.0	1.00×
P2000 \| Space Race (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$9.81	0.6%	11	5.2	2.12×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 60	$9.67	0.6%	6	5.3	1.14×
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$9.58	0.6%	3	5.3	0.56×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$8.67	0.6%	5	5.9	0.85×
P2000 \| Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$8.66	0.6%	9	5.9	1.53×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$8.64	0.6%	4	5.9	0.68×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 53	$8.49	0.6%	9	6.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 53	$8.49	0.6%	7	6.0	1.17×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$8.03	0.6%	11	6.3	1.74×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 46	$7.41	0.6%	6	6.9	0.87×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$7.22	0.6%	4	7.0	0.57×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$7.21	0.6%	11	7.1	1.56×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 44	$7.07	0.6%	6	7.2	0.83×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$7.00	0.6%	6	7.3	0.83×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$6.80	0.6%	6	7.5	0.80×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$6.54	0.6%	5	7.8	0.64×
P2000 \| Space Race (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$6.52	0.6%	4	7.8	0.51×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 38	$6.15	0.6%	6	8.3	0.73×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 38	$6.07	0.6%	9	8.4	1.07×
P2000 \| Space Race (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 37	$5.96	0.6%	8	8.5	0.94×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$5.35	0.6%	4	9.5	0.42×
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$4.44	0.6%	13	11.5	1.13×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/premium, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Space Race (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedЗвук дали президе$37.00$7.800.21x2h

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified007$37.00$12.750.34x4h

P2000 | Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted007$37.00$29.090.79x4h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkkronyii$37.00$7.120.19x6h

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6kronyii$37.00$7.330.20x6h

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonmsk.$37.00$8.650.23x6h

MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonHadi$37.00$6.240.17x11h

M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedHadi$37.00$24.800.67x12h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6Hadi$37.00$24.480.66x12h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonHadi$37.00$10.130.27x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$31.08	88.01%	215
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$31.08	87.96%	215

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 29.7%rare 4.4%covert 9.1%restricted 14.4%Covert 0.7%Legendary 4.0%Ancient 0.2%red 0.9%epic 0.1%#d32ce6 2.9%#8847ff 9.3%pink 7.2%Classified 3.6%uncommon 6.1%#d32ee6 2.2%Restricted 5.3%best hit —