Reality Pending

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.97%

EV $1.76 from 130 items

Observed RTP, 30d

110.12%

562 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

118.99%±17.14343 openings

30 days

110.12%±13.41562 openings

since tracking started

110.12%±13.41562 openings

87.5%112.3%137.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (96.71% – 123.53%, 562 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	343	118.99%±17.1	+3.5σ	odds
30d	562	110.12%±13.4	+3.2σ	odds
All	562	110.12%±13.4	+3.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values130 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 568 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 7,143	$159	1.3%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,818	$41.14	1.3%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,064	$24.19	1.3%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 935	$21.40	1.3%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 877	$20.01	1.3%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 752	$17.10	1.3%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 671	$15.27	1.3%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 641	$14.58	1.3%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 629	$14.24	1.3%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 599	$13.61	1.3%	1	0.9	—
MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 556	$12.64	1.3%	3	1.0	2.93×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 526	$11.94	1.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 485	$11.03	1.3%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$9.07	1.3%	3	1.4	2.11×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 398	$9.05	1.3%	4	1.4	2.81×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 380	$8.63	1.3%	4	1.5	2.68×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 365	$8.29	1.3%	3	1.6	1.93×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 331	$7.52	1.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 329	$7.48	1.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 288	$6.56	1.3%	3	2.0	1.52×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 287	$6.51	1.3%	3	2.0	1.51×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 279	$6.36	1.3%	1	2.0	0.49×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 276	$6.28	1.3%	4	2.1	1.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 264	$6.00	1.3%	4	2.2	1.86×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$5.13	1.3%	1	2.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 206	$4.68	1.3%	2	2.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$4.55	1.3%	3	2.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 193	$4.38	1.3%	2	2.9	0.68×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 190	$4.33	1.3%	3	3.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 186	$4.22	1.3%	5	3.1	1.63×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 185	$4.20	1.3%	3	3.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 182	$4.14	1.3%	3	3.1	0.96×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 172	$3.92	1.3%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$3.82	1.3%	4	3.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 161	$3.66	1.3%	2	3.5	0.57×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 159	$3.62	1.3%	6	3.6	1.68×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 158	$3.59	1.3%	5	3.6	1.39×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 145	$3.30	1.3%	9	3.9	2.30×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 142	$3.23	1.3%	3	4.0	0.75×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 141	$3.21	1.3%	1	4.0	0.25×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$3.11	1.3%	7	4.2	1.69×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 135	$3.07	1.3%	6	4.2	1.43×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 132	$3.01	1.3%	6	4.3	1.40×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 124	$2.83	1.3%	5	4.6	1.09×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$2.55	1.3%	3	5.1	0.59×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 110	$2.50	1.3%	7	5.2	1.36×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 109	$2.48	1.3%	4	5.2	0.77×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 109	$2.48	1.3%	9	5.2	1.73×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 107	$2.44	1.3%	8	5.3	1.51×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$2.36	1.3%	6	5.5	1.10×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 102	$2.31	1.3%	6	5.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$2.28	1.3%	3	5.7	0.53×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 90	$2.05	1.3%	4	6.3	0.64×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$2.04	1.3%	3	6.3	0.47×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$2.02	1.3%	5	6.4	0.78×
P250 \| Valence (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$2.02	1.3%	6	6.4	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 86	$1.95	1.3%	8	6.6	1.21×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$1.89	1.3%	7	6.8	1.02×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 82	$1.86	1.3%	3	6.9	0.43×
Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 81	$1.85	1.3%	7	7.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 80	$1.83	1.3%	1	7.1	0.14×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$1.80	1.3%	10	7.2	1.39×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 79	$1.79	1.3%	6	7.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 344	$1.68	0.3%	3	1.7	1.82×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 331	$1.62	0.3%	4	1.7	2.33×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 331	$1.62	0.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 329	$1.61	0.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 327	$1.60	0.3%	1	1.7	0.58×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 319	$1.56	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 317	$1.55	0.3%	2	1.8	1.12×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 304	$1.49	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 299	$1.46	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 290	$1.42	0.3%	1	2.0	0.51×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 288	$1.41	0.3%	1	2.0	0.51×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 284	$1.39	0.3%	3	2.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 278	$1.36	0.3%	2	2.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 278	$1.36	0.3%	2	2.0	0.98×
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 268	$1.31	0.3%	4	2.1	1.89×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 262	$1.28	0.3%	1	2.2	0.46×
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 253	$1.24	0.3%	4	2.2	1.78×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 245	$1.20	0.3%	1	2.3	0.43×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 246	$1.20	0.3%	4	2.3	1.73×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 245	$1.20	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 239	$1.17	0.3%	3	2.4	1.26×
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 239	$1.17	0.3%	3	2.4	1.26×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 237	$1.16	0.3%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 233	$1.14	0.3%	2	2.4	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 229	$1.12	0.3%	3	2.5	1.21×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 225	$1.10	0.3%	2	2.5	0.79×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 225	$1.10	0.3%	4	2.5	1.58×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 223	$1.09	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 219	$1.07	0.3%	2	2.6	0.77×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 216	$1.06	0.3%	3	2.6	1.14×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 207	$1.01	0.3%	6	2.7	2.18×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 204	$1.00	0.3%	3	2.8	1.08×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$0.98	0.3%	5	2.8	1.76×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 200	$0.98	0.3%	3	2.8	1.06×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 198	$0.97	0.3%	2	2.9	0.70×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 188	$0.92	0.3%	5	3.0	1.66×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 182	$0.89	0.3%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 174	$0.85	0.3%	5	3.3	1.53×
MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 172	$0.84	0.3%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 162	$0.79	0.3%	2	3.5	0.57×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 151	$0.74	0.3%	6	3.8	1.60×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 151	$0.74	0.3%	3	3.8	0.80×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 151	$0.74	0.3%	6	3.8	1.60×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 149	$0.73	0.3%	6	3.8	1.57×
P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 149	$0.73	0.3%	4	3.8	1.05×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 147	$0.72	0.3%	3	3.9	0.78×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 145	$0.71	0.3%	3	3.9	0.77×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 145	$0.71	0.3%	6	3.9	1.53×
MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 139	$0.68	0.3%	3	4.1	0.73×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 127	$0.62	0.3%	6	4.5	1.34×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 102	$0.50	0.3%	4	5.6	0.72×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.48	0.3%	4	5.8	0.69×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 96	$0.47	0.3%	2	5.9	0.34×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 88	$0.43	0.3%	3	6.5	0.46×
P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 76	$0.37	0.3%	7	7.5	0.93×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 74	$0.36	0.3%	4	7.7	0.52×
P250 \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.34	0.3%	11	8.2	1.35×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.33	0.3%	12	8.4	1.43×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 65	$0.32	0.3%	7	8.7	0.81×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.25	0.3%	9	11.1	0.81×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$0.22	0.3%	9	12.6	0.71×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.15	0.3%	27	18.5	1.46×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.14	0.3%	20	19.9	1.01×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.13	0.3%	20	21.4	0.94×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.13	0.3%	22	21.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 27	$0.13	0.3%	17	21.4	0.80×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$0.10	0.3%	23	27.8	0.83×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/reality-pending, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A4 | Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rareKAFA KESEN$2.00$15979.68x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specmajlo$2.00$0.730.37x4d

MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested)weapon · Raremajlo$2.00$1.010.51x4d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedaimpowerqpad*$2.00$1.070.54x4d

AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedaimpowerqpad*$2.00$2.501.25x4d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Cirrus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Raregrgavidakovic31$2.00$1.360.68x5d

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecgrgavidakovic31$2.00$0.430.22x5d

M4A4 | Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommongrgavidakovic31$2.00$14.587.29x5d

USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restrictedkiinm091$2.00$3.111.56x5d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalStryx$2.00$1.800.90x5d

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specPeterPan$2.00$1.890.95x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	130
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.00	88.04%	130
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$2.00	87.97%	130
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$2.00	88.02%	130
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$2.00	87.98%	130

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.4%rare 0.1%Legendary 0.1%mil spec 16.5%restricted 19.7%Mythical 5.5%uncommon 0.2%milspec 28.2%blue 6.8%Classified 0.2%Rare 2.3%#8847ff 3.0%violet 2.7%Restricted 1.3%Mil Spec 1.2%#4b69ff 6.9%Mil Spec Grade 4.9%best hit $159 (79.68x)