Red Mandate

A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$37.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $32.57 from 122 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.84%

331 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

76.88%±19.22263 openings

30 days

81.84%±17.16331 openings

since tracking started

81.84%±17.16331 openings

-0.5%71.5%143.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	65.19%±77.4	—	odds
7d	263	76.88%±19.2	−1.1σ	odds
30d	331	81.84%±17.2	−0.7σ	odds
All	331	81.84%±17.2	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values122 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 331 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$1,484	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$739	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,226	$723	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$655	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$584	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,326	$530	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,083	$465	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$457	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,961	$444	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,961	$443	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,923	$440	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,923	$439	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,852	$419	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,852	$418	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$411	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,695	$384	0.7%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$375	0.7%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$360	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,587	$358	0.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$343	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,389	$317	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,282	$289	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$251	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$227	0.7%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 943	$213	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 917	$208	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 917	$207	0.7%	2	0.4	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 893	$203	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 885	$202	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 847	$192	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 826	$187	0.7%	0	0.4	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 800	$181	0.7%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 763	$173	0.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 730	$165	0.7%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 690	$156	0.7%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 685	$155	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 662	$151	0.7%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 637	$145	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 633	$144	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 633	$143	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 629	$142	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 621	$140	0.7%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 610	$139	0.7%	0	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 552	$125	0.7%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 543	$123	0.7%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 505	$114	0.7%	0	0.7	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 493	$111	0.7%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 478	$108	0.7%	1	0.7	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 461	$104	0.7%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 441	$99.67	0.7%	2	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 435	$98.55	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 435	$98.35	0.7%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 417	$94.46	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 417	$94.23	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 412	$93.56	0.7%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 376	$85.22	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 376	$85.21	0.7%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 375	$84.88	0.7%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 369	$83.76	0.7%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 369	$83.51	0.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 368	$83.24	0.7%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 366	$83.09	0.7%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 364	$82.24	0.7%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 357	$80.93	0.7%	2	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 356	$80.74	0.7%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 352	$79.76	0.7%	0	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 350	$79.28	0.7%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 350	$79.14	0.7%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 347	$78.61	0.7%	0	1.0	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 342	$77.82	0.7%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 331	$75.23	0.7%	1	1.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 330	$74.66	0.7%	2	1.0	1.99×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 324	$73.36	0.7%	1	1.0	0.98×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 321	$72.47	0.7%	1	1.0	0.97×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 318	$72.24	0.7%	2	1.0	1.92×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 313	$71.09	0.7%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 313	$71.02	0.7%	2	1.1	1.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 310	$70.14	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 304	$68.81	0.7%	2	1.1	1.84×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 302	$68.53	0.7%	2	1.1	1.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 301	$68.19	0.7%	2	1.1	1.82×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 296	$66.88	0.7%	1	1.1	0.89×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$64.64	0.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 243	$55.00	0.7%	1	1.4	0.73×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 231	$52.46	0.7%	1	1.4	0.70×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 230	$52.27	0.7%	1	1.4	0.70×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 230	$52.21	0.7%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 225	$51.03	0.7%	1	1.5	0.68×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 211	$47.87	0.7%	5	1.6	3.19×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 207	$46.92	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 205	$46.44	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$45.37	0.7%	3	1.7	1.81×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 199	$45.07	0.7%	2	1.7	1.20×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 198	$44.93	0.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 195	$44.14	0.7%	1	1.7	0.59×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 181	$41.06	0.7%	4	1.8	2.19×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 179	$40.54	0.7%	1	1.9	0.54×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 177	$40.03	0.7%	1	1.9	0.53×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 162	$36.57	0.7%	5	2.0	2.44×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 159	$36.04	0.7%	4	2.1	1.92×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 158	$35.93	0.7%	2	2.1	0.96×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 158	$35.86	0.7%	4	2.1	1.91×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 66	$31.15	1.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 64	$30.05	1.5%	3	5.2	0.58×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$24.27	1.5%	2	6.4	0.31×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$19.54	1.5%	10	8.0	1.25×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$18.98	1.5%	13	8.2	1.58×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 40	$18.82	1.5%	11	8.3	1.32×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 38	$17.96	1.5%	6	8.7	0.69×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 38	$17.85	1.5%	5	8.8	0.57×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 37	$17.39	1.5%	10	9.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 37	$17.30	1.5%	6	9.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 34	$16.23	1.5%	7	9.6	0.73×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$14.72	1.5%	4	10.6	0.38×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 30	$14.21	1.5%	14	11.0	1.27×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 26	$12.28	1.5%	17	12.7	1.33×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$10.45	1.5%	20	15.0	1.34×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$8.65	1.5%	16	18.1	0.88×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$8.54	1.5%	24	18.3	1.31×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$6.34	1.5%	34	24.7	1.38×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 13	$6.04	1.5%	23	25.9	0.89×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$5.84	1.5%	24	26.8	0.90×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/red-mandate, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$53014.32x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$72.241.95x16h

USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$45.371.23x16h

MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$14.720.40x16h

MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$6.040.16x16h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$19.540.53x16h

MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$6.040.16x16h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$17.960.49x17h

MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$5.840.16x18h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$10.450.28x18h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified★☜GoldenBurger☞★$37.00$17.960.49x18h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$37.00	88.01%	122
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$37.00	88.05%	122
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$37.00	87.99%	122
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$37.00	87.99%	122
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$37.00	87.97%	122
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$37.00	87.99%	122
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$37.00	88.00%	122
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$37.00	87.96%	122
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$37.00	88.02%	122
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$37.00	88.01%	122
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$37.00	88.01%	122

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 58.8%covert 13.1%covert knife 0.3%Covert 0.5%Ancient 1.3%Classified 3.1%rare 0.9%red 2.9%pink 11.2%#eb4b4b 0.5%#d32ce6 0.6%Legendary 1.6%#d32ee6 5.2%best hit $530 (14.32x)