Relic of Ages

A case on Hellcase (trending), first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$45.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $39.60 from 118 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.68%

53 openings, odds method

Variance

3.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

53 openings · below min

30 days

53 openings · below min

since tracking started

53 openings · below min

11.5%108.3%205.0%

Small sample. 53 openings and 6.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	108.34%±96.2	—	odds
7d	53	94.68%±47.7	—	odds
30d	53	94.68%±47.7	—	odds
All	53	94.68%±47.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values118 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$3,147	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 6,667	$2,151	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$2,109	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$1,081	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$928	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,564	$802	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,439	$770	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$530	0.8%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,471	$465	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,429	$457	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,408	$449	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,408	$444	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,389	$443	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,389	$440	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$439	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,333	$419	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,316	$418	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,220	$384	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$375	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,124	$358	0.8%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$343	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,020	$322	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,000	$317	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$317	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 654	$207	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 641	$203	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 606	$192	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 606	$192	0.8%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 543	$173	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 521	$165	0.8%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 493	$156	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 490	$155	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 481	$152	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 457	$145	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 455	$144	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 452	$143	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 448	$142	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 444	$140	0.8%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 439	$139	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 395	$125	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 391	$123	0.8%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 355	$112	0.8%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 351	$111	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 339	$107	0.8%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 330	$104	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 314	$99.67	0.8%	1	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 311	$98.55	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 311	$98.35	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 299	$94.46	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 298	$94.23	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 296	$93.56	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 269	$85.22	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 270	$85.21	0.8%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 269	$84.88	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 265	$83.76	0.8%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 264	$83.51	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 263	$83.24	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 262	$83.09	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 260	$82.24	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 256	$80.93	0.8%	1	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 255	$80.74	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 253	$79.76	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 251	$79.28	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$79.14	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 249	$78.61	0.8%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 246	$77.82	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 238	$75.23	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 236	$74.66	0.8%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 232	$73.36	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$72.47	0.8%	2	0.2	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 228	$72.24	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 225	$71.09	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 225	$71.02	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 222	$70.14	0.8%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 217	$68.81	0.8%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 216	$68.53	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 216	$68.19	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 211	$66.88	0.8%	0	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$64.64	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 174	$55.00	0.8%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 166	$52.46	0.8%	1	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 165	$52.27	0.8%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 165	$52.21	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 161	$51.03	0.8%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 151	$47.87	0.8%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 148	$46.92	0.8%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 147	$46.44	0.8%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$45.37	0.8%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 142	$45.07	0.8%	1	0.4	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 142	$44.93	0.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 139	$44.14	0.8%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 130	$41.06	0.8%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 128	$40.54	0.8%	0	0.4	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 126	$40.02	0.8%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 89	$36.57	1.0%	1	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 88	$36.04	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 88	$35.93	1.0%	2	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 87	$35.83	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 75	$30.81	1.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 73	$30.05	1.0%	1	0.7	—
MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$24.27	1.0%	3	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 48	$19.54	1.0%	1	1.1	0.90×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$18.98	1.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 46	$18.82	1.0%	3	1.2	2.60×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 44	$17.88	1.0%	1	1.2	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 43	$17.85	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 42	$17.39	1.0%	2	1.3	1.60×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 42	$17.30	1.0%	1	1.3	0.80×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$16.23	1.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$14.72	1.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$14.24	1.0%	3	1.5	1.96×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 30	$12.28	1.0%	1	1.8	0.56×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.45	1.0%	2	2.1	0.96×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$8.65	1.0%	1	2.5	0.40×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 21	$8.54	1.0%	2	2.5	0.79×
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 15	$6.34	1.0%	6	3.4	1.75×
MP9 \| Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 15	$6.04	1.0%	3	3.6	0.83×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.84	1.0%	3	3.7	0.81×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/relic-of-ages, 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertAlexandru Mihai$45.00$53011.78x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New)weapon · classifiedaludhxcs$45.00$24.270.54x2h

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertaludhxcs$45.00$1072.39x2h

MAC-10 | Toybox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6aludhxcs$45.00$18.820.42x2h

M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertiDrxzFTN$45.00$72.471.61x2h

AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covertZoZ1k$45.00$52.461.17x10h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertSenours$45.00$99.672.21x11h

USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBart Sampson$45.00$45.371.01x14h

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBart Sampson$45.00$74.661.66x14h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkronyii$45.00$10.450.23x15h

USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covertkronyii$45.00$46.921.04x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$45.00	88.01%	118
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$45.00	87.96%	118
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$45.00	87.86%	118
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$45.00	87.97%	118
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$45.00	88.00%	118
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$45.00	88.00%	118
6 Nov, 23:48 UTC	$45.00	88.02%	118

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 18.1%covert knife 0.4%Covert 0.7%Ancient 1.8%Classified 2.8%rare 1.2%red 4.9%classified 52.2%pink 10.4%#eb4b4b 0.8%#d32ce6 0.8%Legendary 1.4%#d32ee6 4.5%best hit $530 (11.78x)