Rivalry Unleashed
A case on Hellcase (esports), first seen 11 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.
Price
$88.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $77.44 from 67 items
Observed RTP, 30d
137.56%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
93.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values67 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hellcase:api/open/rivalry-unleashed, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC | $88.00 | 88.00% | 67 |
| 11 Nov, 03:46 UTC | $88.00 | 87.97% | 67 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.2%epic 0.1%covert 82.9%restricted 0.1%Covert 0.5%#EB4B4B 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%covert knife 0.1%classified 0.1%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.3%red 15.7%best hit $717 (8.15x)