Shiny Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$250.00

Advertised RTP

86.00%

EV $215.00 from 203 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.91%

15 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

15 openings · below min

since tracking started

15 openings · below min

28.5%117.8%207.0%

Small sample. 15 openings and 4.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	117.74%±88.5	—	odds
7d	13	74.21%±34.5	—	odds
30d	15	74.91%±32.1	—	odds
All	15	74.91%±32.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values203 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$1,631	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,887	$1,518	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,887	$1,506	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,695	$1,352	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,667	$1,339	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 1,639	$1,320	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,639	$1,320	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 1,639	$1,320	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,587	$1,282	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,449	$1,161	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 1,429	$1,153	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,190	$963	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,190	$956	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 1,190	$947	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,176	$943	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,124	$894	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$892	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,087	$873	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,053	$844	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$802	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 971	$778	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 962	$770	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 926	$739	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 917	$734	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 909	$734	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 893	$718	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 893	$715	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 877	$706	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 870	$701	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 833	$665	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 820	$657	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 813	$650	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 794	$639	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 781	$623	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 769	$618	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 769	$617	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 746	$599	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 714	$571	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 699	$561	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 699	$559	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 690	$553	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 685	$550	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 676	$542	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 667	$534	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 662	$531	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 641	$512	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 610	$488	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 602	$485	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 595	$479	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 595	$478	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 585	$469	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 581	$465	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 575	$461	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 571	$459	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 571	$457	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 559	$448	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 552	$444	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 549	$442	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 541	$434	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 538	$432	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 532	$427	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 526	$423	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 524	$422	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 498	$400	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 490	$392	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 485	$389	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 478	$384	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 476	$382	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 474	$379	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 469	$377	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 463	$371	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 459	$368	0.4%	1	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 457	$367	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 457	$366	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 450	$361	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 442	$354	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 427	$342	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 427	$342	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 426	$342	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 420	$338	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 420	$337	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 417	$335	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 415	$332	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 413	$330	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 410	$330	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 408	$329	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 408	$327	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 403	$322	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 395	$317	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 392	$315	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 392	$314	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 391	$314	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 386	$309	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 380	$306	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 380	$305	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 379	$304	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 375	$301	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 375	$301	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 365	$293	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 364	$292	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 362	$290	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 355	$284	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 352	$283	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 347	$279	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 348	$279	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 346	$278	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 344	$276	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 342	$275	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 342	$275	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 340	$273	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 337	$269	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 332	$267	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 332	$266	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 327	$263	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 326	$261	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 324	$260	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 323	$259	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 314	$252	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 311	$249	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 305	$245	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 305	$245	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 304	$244	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 299	$240	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 299	$240	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 296	$237	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 294	$236	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 290	$233	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 287	$230	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 287	$229	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 282	$226	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 279	$223	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 275	$221	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 275	$220	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 273	$219	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 272	$218	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 270	$217	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 269	$216	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 131	$209	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$207	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 130	$207	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 130	$206	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 126	$200	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$199	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$198	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 125	$198	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 124	$198	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 123	$197	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 120	$191	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 120	$190	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$188	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$186	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 116	$185	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 113	$180	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$176	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 110	$175	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 110	$174	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 108	$172	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 108	$172	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 108	$172	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$169	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$168	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$167	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 104	$166	0.7%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 104	$165	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 103	$164	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 102	$163	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 102	$162	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 101	$160	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 98	$157	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 98	$156	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 98	$155	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$155	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 96	$153	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 96	$152	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$150	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$150	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$148	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 93	$147	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 89	$142	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 88	$140	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 88	$140	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 86	$138	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 86	$136	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 85	$135	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 84	$134	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 81	$129	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 81	$128	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 80	$127	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 79	$126	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 77	$123	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 77	$123	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 76	$121	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 75	$119	0.7%	2	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 72	$115	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 72	$115	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 70	$112	0.7%	1	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 69	$110	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 69	$110	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 69	$109	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 61	$97.70	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 58	$92.96	0.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 56	$89.97	0.7%	1	0.3	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 56	$89.39	0.7%	0	0.3	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/shinyknives, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifedmy45$250$4481.79x11h

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifedmy45$250$1400.56x11h

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertzat$250$3321.33x2d

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertzat$250$1660.66x2d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$250$1190.47x2d

★ Ursus Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertzat$250$1580.63x2d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$250$2020.81x2d

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$250$1190.47x2d

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifezat$250$1670.67x2d

★ Navaja Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortalzat$250$1120.45x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$250	86.15%	203
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$250	86.00%	203
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$250	86.00%	203

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 38.7%covert knife 43.0%gold 8.5%Immortal 4.5%rare 2.3%epic 0.9%sunny 1.0%#ffd700 1.1%best hit —