Skeptical

A case on Hellcase (meme-factory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.93%

EV $1.76 from 176 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.33%

535 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79 openings · below min

7 days

96.39%±16.79507 openings

30 days

97.33%±16.35535 openings

since tracking started

97.33%±16.35535 openings

54.0%97.3%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	79	97.22%±42.6	—	odds
7d	507	96.39%±16.8	+1.0σ	odds
30d	535	97.33%±16.4	+1.1σ	odds
All	535	97.33%±16.4	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values176 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 650 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$181	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$133	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20,000	$113	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 16,667	$95.87	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$85.27	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$84.60	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 12,500	$80.27	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$63.11	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 9,091	$60.68	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$50.77	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$50.30	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 7,692	$49.54	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$41.90	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$41.83	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,250	$40.51	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$40.21	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$36.28	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$35.43	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$35.06	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,000	$33.23	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$31.09	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$30.72	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$30.43	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$30.26	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$29.55	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 4,545	$29.16	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,348	$28.17	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 4,348	$27.76	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 4,000	$26.19	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$26.14	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$23.89	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$21.74	0.4%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 3,226	$20.85	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,125	$19.98	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$19.82	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$18.70	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$18.49	0.4%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,857	$18.17	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$18.10	0.4%	1	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,778	$17.84	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 2,632	$17.35	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$17.34	0.4%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$17.01	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$17.00	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 2,500	$16.23	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,439	$15.95	0.4%	0	0.3	—
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$15.74	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,273	$15.08	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$14.95	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,273	$14.71	0.4%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,273	$14.66	0.4%	1	0.3	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$14.07	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,174	$14.06	0.4%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,174	$14.03	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 2,128	$13.96	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,128	$13.91	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,128	$13.70	0.4%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$13.60	0.4%	1	0.3	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,000	$13.26	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,923	$12.56	0.4%	3	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,852	$12.19	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$11.74	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,754	$11.54	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$11.45	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,754	$11.45	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$11.39	0.4%	1	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,724	$11.27	0.4%	1	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,724	$11.24	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,724	$11.22	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,695	$11.06	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$10.41	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,587	$10.29	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$10.21	0.4%	1	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,562	$10.11	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,538	$10.07	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,538	$10.00	0.4%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$9.91	0.4%	0	0.4	—
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 1,515	$9.87	0.4%	1	0.4	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,515	$9.79	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$8.56	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 1,299	$8.46	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,220	$7.95	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,205	$7.90	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$7.77	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$7.52	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,136	$7.41	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,124	$7.31	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,087	$7.13	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 990	$6.44	0.4%	2	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 962	$6.26	0.4%	1	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 943	$6.12	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 935	$6.10	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 926	$6.01	0.4%	1	0.7	—
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 917	$5.95	0.4%	2	0.7	—
USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 909	$5.90	0.4%	2	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 813	$5.31	0.4%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 800	$5.23	0.4%	2	0.8	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 800	$5.19	0.4%	2	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 794	$5.17	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 781	$5.06	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 763	$4.99	0.4%	0	0.9	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$4.87	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 746	$4.85	0.4%	1	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 741	$4.81	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 704	$4.60	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 704	$4.58	0.4%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 699	$4.55	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 685	$4.47	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 680	$4.42	0.4%	1	1.0	—
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 654	$4.25	0.4%	1	1.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$4.08	0.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 613	$3.99	0.4%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 610	$3.98	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 602	$3.91	0.4%	4	1.1	3.71×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 535	$3.48	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 513	$3.34	0.4%	1	1.3	0.79×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 485	$3.16	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 483	$3.15	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 476	$3.10	0.4%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 474	$3.08	0.4%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 439	$2.86	0.4%	2	1.5	1.35×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 437	$2.84	0.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 408	$2.66	0.4%	2	1.6	1.26×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 377	$2.46	0.4%	2	1.7	1.16×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$2.29	0.4%	1	1.9	0.54×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$2.29	0.4%	3	1.9	1.62×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 336	$2.19	0.4%	1	1.9	0.52×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 334	$2.18	0.4%	2	1.9	1.03×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 332	$2.16	0.4%	1	2.0	0.51×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 330	$2.15	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 323	$2.10	0.4%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 317	$2.07	0.4%	2	2.0	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 314	$2.05	0.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 304	$1.98	0.4%	1	2.1	0.47×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 303	$1.97	0.4%	2	2.1	0.93×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 299	$1.94	0.4%	1	2.2	0.46×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 291	$1.89	0.4%	1	2.2	0.45×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 287	$1.87	0.4%	3	2.3	1.33×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 286	$1.86	0.4%	4	2.3	1.76×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 284	$1.85	0.4%	2	2.3	0.87×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 73	$1.71	1.3%	7	9.0	0.78×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 68	$1.60	1.3%	10	9.6	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$1.60	1.3%	8	9.6	0.84×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$1.56	1.3%	6	9.8	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 66	$1.55	1.3%	11	9.9	1.11×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 66	$1.55	1.3%	14	9.9	1.42×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$1.55	1.3%	12	9.9	1.21×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$1.55	1.3%	11	9.9	1.11×
Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 65	$1.53	1.3%	4	10.0	0.40×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$1.52	1.3%	14	10.1	1.39×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$1.50	1.3%	12	10.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.46	1.3%	16	10.5	1.53×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.46	1.3%	9	10.5	0.86×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$1.36	1.3%	3	11.3	0.27×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$1.33	1.3%	7	11.5	0.61×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.21	1.3%	20	12.7	1.58×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 51	$1.20	1.3%	11	12.8	0.86×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.17	1.3%	23	13.1	1.76×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$1.09	1.3%	9	14.1	0.64×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$1.04	1.3%	11	14.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$1.02	1.3%	14	15.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$0.91	1.3%	20	16.8	1.19×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 38	$0.90	1.3%	11	17.0	0.65×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$0.89	1.3%	14	17.2	0.81×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.80	1.3%	16	19.1	0.84×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 34	$0.79	1.3%	22	19.4	1.13×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$0.79	1.3%	13	19.4	0.67×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.78	1.3%	21	19.6	1.07×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.77	1.3%	18	19.9	0.90×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$0.76	1.3%	21	20.2	1.04×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$0.76	1.3%	26	20.2	1.29×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$0.71	1.3%	28	21.6	1.30×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$0.65	1.3%	22	23.6	0.93×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$0.54	1.3%	21	28.4	0.74×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$0.53	1.3%	37	28.9	1.28×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.48	1.3%	35	31.9	1.10×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/skeptical, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHUSEYİNİMS$2.00$1.460.73x2m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHUSEYİNİMS$2.00$1.520.76x2m

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHUSEYİNİMS$2.00$1.210.61x2m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHUSEYİNİMS$2.00$19.829.91x3m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHUSEYİNİMS$2.00$1.550.78x3m

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetk1ss3d_$2.00$0.480.24x28m

USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonJerry$2.00$0.760.38x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalJerry$2.00$1.090.55x1h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJerry$2.00$0.910.46x1h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetJerry$2.00$0.480.24x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.00	87.93%	176
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$2.00	88.05%	176
9 Nov, 20:18 UTC	$2.00	87.94%	176
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$2.00	87.99%	176
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$2.00	88.04%	176
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$2.00	88.03%	176
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$2.00	88.04%	176
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$2.00	87.93%	176
4 Nov, 04:57 UTC	$2.00	88.09%	176

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.0%Legendary 0.2%restricted 54.9%pink 1.3%Classified 0.0%#d32ce6 1.5%rare 0.0%uncommon 3.3%Restricted 0.4%Mythical 5.6%#d32ee6 0.1%violet 22.3%#8847ff 6.6%#8847FF 2.6%best hit —