Supreme Case

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.55

Advertised RTP

85.95%

EV $5.63 from 212 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.94%

548 openings, odds method

Variance

10.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 42

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

34 openings · below min

7 days

59.95%±28.67266 openings

30 days

64.94%±22.22548 openings

since tracking started

64.94%±22.22548 openings

-0.5%66.3%133.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	34	66.22%±66.3	—	odds
7d	266	59.95%±28.7	−0.3σ	odds
30d	548	64.94%±22.2	−0.6σ	odds
All	548	64.94%±22.2	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values212 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 554 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$431	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 14,286	$337	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$325	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$293	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$282	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$270	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$266	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 11,111	$260	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$244	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$242	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,091	$232	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$226	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$222	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$221	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$218	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$217	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$215	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$215	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$213	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$211	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$206	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$204	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$201	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$201	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$181	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$179	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,143	$174	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$174	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$171	0.5%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$171	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$170	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$168	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$167	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$165	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$164	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,667	$162	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$161	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$161	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$159	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$158	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$157	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$155	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$149	0.4%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$148	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$147	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 5,882	$145	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$144	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$144	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$144	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$139	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 5,263	$135	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$134	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$130	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$129	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,263	$128	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$127	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$127	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$127	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$123	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$123	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,762	$123	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$122	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$121	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$120	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$116	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$114	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$113	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$113	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 4,545	$112	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$111	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$110	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$109	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 4,348	$109	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$109	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,348	$107	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$106	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,167	$103	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$103	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,000	$102	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$101	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 4,000	$100	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$98.92	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$98.56	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$98.47	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,000	$97.36	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$96.64	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$92.79	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 3,704	$92.06	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 3,571	$90.18	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$87.51	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,448	$84.66	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$81.70	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,333	$81.61	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$81.42	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$80.84	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,226	$80.33	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$79.97	0.4%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$79.54	0.5%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 3,125	$77.88	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,030	$75.54	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 3,030	$74.62	0.4%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,030	$74.03	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$72.13	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$70.87	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 2,632	$65.48	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,632	$64.90	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,632	$64.44	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$63.11	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$62.64	0.4%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 2,439	$60.68	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 2,439	$60.66	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,439	$60.27	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,439	$60.23	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$59.54	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,273	$55.62	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,273	$55.26	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,222	$55.14	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,174	$54.63	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$53.41	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$51.91	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$50.97	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,041	$50.89	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,961	$48.34	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$47.97	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$47.64	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,818	$45.76	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$45.53	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$45.23	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,818	$44.84	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,786	$43.83	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,724	$42.96	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,613	$39.58	0.4%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,515	$37.45	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$36.86	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,471	$36.21	0.4%	0	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$35.25	0.4%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$35.08	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,429	$34.98	0.4%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,389	$34.38	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,370	$34.01	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$33.22	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$33.17	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$32.27	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$31.32	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$31.06	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,220	$30.08	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,205	$30.07	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$29.53	0.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,190	$29.51	0.4%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,190	$29.49	0.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,190	$29.38	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,136	$28.27	0.4%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,149	$28.16	0.4%	2	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,136	$28.10	0.4%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,136	$28.02	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,053	$25.96	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$25.94	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,031	$25.30	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,020	$25.24	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 980	$24.46	0.4%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 980	$24.11	0.4%	2	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 926	$22.99	0.4%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 893	$22.11	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$21.38	0.4%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 862	$21.35	0.4%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 775	$19.10	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 763	$19.01	0.4%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$18.86	0.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 752	$18.60	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 752	$18.52	0.4%	2	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 680	$16.84	0.4%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 654	$16.18	0.4%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 645	$16.04	0.4%	2	0.9	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 637	$15.74	0.4%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 633	$15.70	0.4%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 629	$15.57	0.4%	1	0.9	—
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 595	$14.74	0.4%	2	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 565	$14.00	0.4%	2	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 562	$13.91	0.4%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 562	$13.89	0.4%	3	1.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 552	$13.71	0.4%	1	1.0	1.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 546	$13.56	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 532	$13.15	0.4%	4	1.0	3.84×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$12.35	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$11.74	0.4%	3	1.2	2.58×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 463	$11.50	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 463	$11.45	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 446	$11.03	0.4%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 442	$10.97	0.4%	1	1.3	0.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 441	$10.90	0.4%	3	1.3	2.39×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 407	$10.03	0.4%	3	1.4	2.20×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 395	$9.75	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 365	$9.03	0.4%	2	1.5	1.32×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 321	$7.94	0.4%	5	1.7	2.89×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 260	$6.45	0.4%	3	2.1	1.41×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 251	$6.22	0.4%	6	2.2	2.72×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$4.39	0.9%	9	6.2	1.46×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$4.30	0.9%	7	6.3	1.11×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$4.28	0.9%	9	6.3	1.42×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$3.70	0.9%	11	7.3	1.50×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 76	$3.70	0.9%	6	7.3	0.82×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$3.62	0.9%	7	7.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Focus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 60	$2.95	0.9%	10	9.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.84	0.9%	20	14.7	1.36×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.38	0.9%	21	19.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Caged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 26	$1.28	0.9%	24	21.2	1.13×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.83	0.9%	36	32.7	1.10×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 10	$0.51	0.9%	52	53.1	0.98×
AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	11.6%	$0.42	0.9%	59	64.5	0.91×
P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	12.2%	$0.40	0.9%	74	67.8	1.09×
P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	12.9%	$0.38	0.9%	65	71.3	0.91×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	16.3%	$0.30	0.9%	62	90.3	0.69×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/supreme, 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedrastamanik$55.00$1.900.03x4h

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalljanmmii.exe$7.80$3.810.49x4h

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffСергей$7.80$0.290.04x5h

AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareSKINS Haaland$7.80$0.410.05x5h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedcmy$7.80$70.689.06x6h

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffcmy$7.80$0.290.04x6h

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspeccmy$7.80$1.000.13x6h

AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarecmy$7.80$0.410.05x6h

P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspeccmy$7.80$0.380.05x6h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedcmy$7.80$49.956.40x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.55	85.95%	212
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.55	86.02%	212

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%Covert 0.1%classified 7.2%Legendary 0.7%#eb4b4b 0.0%covert knife 0.3%Ancient 0.1%red 0.2%pink 1.8%Immortal 0.0%#ffd700 0.1%gold 0.0%Classified 0.5%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 11.2%#d32ce6 0.3%Mythical 1.3%milspec 24.2%#4b69ff 25.9%Rare 23.9%best hit —