Golden Bad Boy

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$149.99

150 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.88%

EV $134.82 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.14%

5,254 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

21.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.03%±7.20591 openings

7 days

86.69%±2.614,478 openings

30 days

87.14%±2.415,254 openings

since tracking started

87.14%±2.415,254 openings

77.0%85.0%93.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.99% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.72% – 89.55%, 5,254 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	591	85.03%±7.20	−1.3σ	odds
7d	4,478	86.69%±2.61	−2.5σ	odds
30d	5,254	87.14%±2.41	−2.3σ	odds
All	5,254	87.14%±2.41	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,270 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	8	5.3	1.52×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$1,229 1,229 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	6	5.3	1.14×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,103 1,103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	5	10.5	0.47×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 333	$732 732 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	12	15.8	0.76×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$665 665 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	15	21.1	0.71×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$657 657 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	19	26.3	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$587 587 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	25	31.6	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$503 503 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	33	36.9	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 125	$493 493 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	48	42.2	1.14×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$377 377 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	28	42.2	0.66×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$371 371 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	42	47.4	0.89×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$346 346 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	36	52.7	0.68×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$336 336 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	49	52.7	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 91	$323 323 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	47	58.0	0.81×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 67	$259 259 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	90	79.0	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 63	$248 248 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	84	84.3	1.00×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 53	$223 223 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	95	100.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$217 217 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	119	105.4	1.13×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	114	105.4	1.08×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 50	$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	117	105.4	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Phase 1	1 in 50	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	87	105.4	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 50	$158 158 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	124	105.4	1.18×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	107	105.4	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	95	105.4	0.90×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	104	110.7	0.94×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 48	$130 130 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	109	110.7	0.98×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	39	115.9	0.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	126	115.9	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	133	115.9	1.15×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	109	115.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 37	$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	35	142.3	0.25×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	153	158.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	158	158.1	1.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$96.32 96.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	161	158.1	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$92.76 92.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	176	158.1	1.11×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 33	$88.12 88.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	158	158.1	1.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 33	$86.66 86.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	157	158.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$81.92 81.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	150	158.1	0.95×
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$77.59 77.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	147	158.1	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$75.11 75.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	33	158.1	0.21×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 31	$72.00 72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	136	168.6	0.81×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 29	$66.52 66.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	207	184.4	1.12×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$57.46 57.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	234	216.1	1.08×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 25	$52.26 52.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	251	210.8	1.19×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$45.08 45.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	274	263.5	1.04×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$33.23 33.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	267	263.5	1.01×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$29.41 29.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	241	263.5	0.91×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertClaraaa-$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x38m

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertb0bann$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x20h

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMyncu$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x2d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert♡*>>xyJIuran4uk<<*♡$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x3d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCalc$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x3d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertBytza$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x4d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertBrache!$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x5d

AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertHenry$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,6071,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.71x7d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4Bgrrom256$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2291,229 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.20x2d

Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4Bfr0xis$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,2291,229 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.20x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Huntsman Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertЯ САНЯ$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$158158 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.06x4m

★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · goldЯ САНЯ$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$259259 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.73x4m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertЯ САНЯ$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$66.5266.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x4m

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAmpha$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$587587 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.91x5m

AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedBalance$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$29.4129.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.20x19m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedShmichael$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$45.0845.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.30x19m

AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertBalance$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$107107 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x19m

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · goldShmichael$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$86.6686.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x19m

AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rareBalance$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$52.2652.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x19m

AK-47 | B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rareShmichael$150150 HOTPIZZA_POINT$52.2652.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x19m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.88%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$150	89.88%	47
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$150	90.02%	47
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$150	90.27%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 47.8%#EB4B4B 0.1%classified 14.3%covert knife 9.5%gold 4.5%other 3.6%#ffd700 2.0%Legendary 2.0%restricted 3.0%red 3.0%rare 7.0%epic 3.2%best hit $1,607 (10.71x)