Chroma

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.00

44 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

93.74%

EV $41.25 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.45%

7,070 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.30%±6.01834 openings

7 days

94.96%±2.325,714 openings

30 days

95.45%±2.097,070 openings

since tracking started

95.45%±2.097,070 openings

87.5%94.3%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	834	94.30%±6.01	+0.2σ	odds
7d	5,714	94.96%±2.32	+0.5σ	odds
30d	7,070	95.45%±2.09	+1.0σ	odds
All	7,070	95.45%±2.09	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,099 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$901 901 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	7	3.5	1.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$465 465 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	8	7.1	1.13×
StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 500	$243 243 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	18	14.2	1.27×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 500	$239 239 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	8	14.2	0.56×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 400	$193 193 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	25	17.7	1.41×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 222	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	32	31.9	1.00×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 222	$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	31	31.9	0.97×
G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 200	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	31	35.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 125	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	54	56.8	0.95×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	34	35.5	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	36	42.6	0.85×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	49	49.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$102 102 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	42	35.5	1.18×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$92.05 92.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	62	56.8	1.09×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 111	$84.71 84.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	64	63.9	1.00×
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$84.50 84.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	72	71.0	1.01×
AWP \| Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$73.54 73.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	64	71.0	0.90×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 100	$64.70 64.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	50	71.0	0.70×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$63.35 63.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	110	106.5	1.03×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$57.78 57.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	257	284.0	0.91×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 25	$56.54 56.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	268	284.0	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$56.48 56.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	299	284.0	1.05×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$51.32 51.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	310	319.5	0.97×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$47.89 47.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.8%	363	354.9	1.02×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20	$46.10 46.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	365	354.9	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$43.20 43.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	396	354.9	1.12×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$38.73 38.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	373	354.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$36.66 36.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	357	354.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$31.15 31.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	352	354.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 20	$28.91 28.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	340	354.9	0.96×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$26.05 26.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	428	425.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$20.42 20.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	463	425.9	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$15.34 15.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	410	425.9	0.96×
USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$13.45 13.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	92	354.9	0.26×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$11.76 11.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	346	354.9	0.97×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$9.59 9.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	347	354.9	0.98×
AUG \| Torque (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.27 7.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	248	284.0	0.87×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMayh$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x1d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertЧерный Мечник$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x1d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGrav1ty. JD$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x2d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertizi"rak"#$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x4d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertfantazzzt$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x6d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGNDS IntelQuackCore$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x6d

AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFanShi ︻芫=--$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$901901 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.47x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ USP-S | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertCJay$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$56.4856.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.28x5m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedGeo$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.6636.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x5m

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · redGeo$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$46.1046.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.05x6m

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGeo$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.3415.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x6m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedllama$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$31.1531.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x6m

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertllama$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$47.8947.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x6m

AWP | Snake Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specdempman$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$73.5473.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.67x7m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedcharlo$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.6636.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x8m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare123270$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$56.5456.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.29x8m

USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specPrzyjacielWęglacy21$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.4513.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$44.00	93.74%	37
3 Nov, 09:34 UTC	$44.00	94.63%	37
3 Nov, 09:11 UTC	$44.00	95.01%	37
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$44.00	94.68%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 18.9%Legendary 0.2%Covert 0.2%Ancient 0.8%classified 31.1%Classified 5.5%industrial 0.5%#eb4b4b 0.8%mil spec 6.0%#d32ce6 1.0%rare 4.0%red 5.0%restricted 21.0%violet 5.0%best hit $901 (20.47x)