Piri Piri Inferno

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$85.00

85 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.65%

EV $73.65 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.99%

6,022 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

58.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.36%±5.00769 openings

7 days

86.25%±1.955,055 openings

30 days

85.99%±1.796,022 openings

since tracking started

85.99%±1.796,022 openings

78.5%84.3%90.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	769	84.36%±5.00	−0.9σ	odds
7d	5,055	86.25%±1.95	−0.4σ	odds
30d	6,022	85.99%±1.79	−0.7σ	odds
All	6,022	85.99%±1.79	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,036 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B	1 in 1,000	$738 738 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	8	6.0	1.33×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 500	$695 695 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	7	12.1	0.58×
★ Karambit \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 500	$485 485 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	10	12.1	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$356 356 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	20	24.1	0.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 250	$254 254 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	24	24.1	0.99×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$244 244 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	32	30.2	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$223 223 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	41	42.3	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$162 162 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	42	42.3	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	43	48.3	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$143 143 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	55	60.4	0.91×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	66	60.4	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	53	60.4	0.88×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	52	60.4	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 50	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	118	120.7	0.98×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	194	181.1	1.07×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	179	181.1	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	207	181.1	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	186	181.1	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 33	$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	171	181.1	0.94×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$95.03 95.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	174	181.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$91.82 91.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	234	241.4	0.97×
★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$87.46 87.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.9%	294	301.8	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$86.89 86.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.9%	317	301.8	1.05×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$74.15 74.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	323	301.8	1.07×
★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 20	$60.30 60.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	291	301.8	0.96×
★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 20	$55.67 55.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	277	301.8	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$54.86 54.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	295	301.8	0.98×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$48.24 48.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	349	362.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$39.35 39.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	312	301.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$33.41 33.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	332	301.8	1.10×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$31.05 31.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	227	241.4	0.94×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 33	$28.78 28.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	170	181.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$27.43 27.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	215	181.1	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$24.36 24.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	186	181.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$20.27 20.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	171	181.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$18.16 18.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	116	120.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$10.97 10.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	124	120.7	1.03×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$9.31 9.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	110	120.7	0.91×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4BA S P Ξ C T$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x51m

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B󠁳⁧⁧ l i c c$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x8h

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4BМАША ПЧЕЛОВОД$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B42$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4BLia$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4Bacromo$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x5d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4Bnot so dire straits$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x6d

Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4BNyanMatt$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$738738 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.69x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · goldᴇɢᴏɪsᴛ$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$695695 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.17x6h

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · goldImmortal 🂽$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$695695 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.17x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · goldКРИП ЕБАНЕЙШИЙ$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$60.3060.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x14m

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeКРИП ЕБАНЕЙШИЙ$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$86.8986.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.02x14m

AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covertB(r)ooke(n)d$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$48.2448.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x19m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.3539.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x24m

★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertMrWildKard$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.31x25m

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeMeow$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$54.8654.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x25m

★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertShmichael$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.31x27m

★ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covertعتو$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$114114 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.34x29m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertMrWildKard$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$91.8291.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.08x29m

★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covertعتو$85.0085 HOTPIZZA_POINT$108108 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.27x29m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.65%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC	$85.00	86.65%	38
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$85.00	86.88%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 0.1%gold 5.2%#ffd700 0.2%covert knife 30.6%Covert 5.4%covert 25.5%red 6.0%Immortal 3.0%industrial 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%classified 5.0%pink 3.0%Mythical 5.0%Classified 2.0%best hit $738 (8.69x)