Monster "i"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.50

0.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

95.75%

EV $0.48 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.33%

68K openings, odds method

Variance

9.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.00%±6.728,102 openings

7 days

95.56%±2.6357.2K openings

30 days

96.33%±2.4268K openings

since tracking started

96.33%±2.4268K openings

85.5%93.0%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	8,102	93.00%±6.72	−0.8σ	odds
7d	57.2K	95.56%±2.63	−0.3σ	odds
30d	68K	96.33%±2.42	+0.3σ	odds
All	68K	96.33%±2.42	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 68.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	12	6.8	1.76×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$45.78 45.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	10	13.6	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 2,000	$21.33 21.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	30	34.1	0.88×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 1,429	$11.33 11.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	42	47.7	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,250	$10.01 10.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	63	54.5	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Night (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,250	$5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	48	54.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,000	$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	59	68.1	0.87×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 500	$3.56 3.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	136	136.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 333	$2.18 2.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	173	204.3	0.85×
MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 270	$2.04 2.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	204	252.0	0.81×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 200	$1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	298	340.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.33 1.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	620	681.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 100	$1.20 1.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	660	681.1	0.97×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.95 0.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	721	681.1	1.06×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 82	$0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	854	830.9	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 50	$0.82 0.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	1,356	1362.1	1.00×
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$0.68 0.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	1,387	1362.1	1.02×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$0.65 0.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	2,019	2043.2	0.99×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$0.60 0.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	1,974	2043.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$0.58 0.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	2,015	2043.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.56 0.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	2,832	2724.3	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.48 0.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	2,748	2724.3	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 20	$0.47 0.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	3,343	3405.3	0.98×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	3,342	3405.3	0.98×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$0.40 0.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	4,148	4086.4	1.02×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.38 0.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	4,172	4086.4	1.02×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	4,824	4767.5	1.01×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	3,998	4086.4	0.98×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.31 0.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	3,486	3405.3	1.02×
Negev \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	3,389	3405.3	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 20	$0.28 0.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	3,467	3405.3	1.02×
MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	2,713	2724.3	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Prey (Field-Tested)weapon · gray	1 in 25	$0.20 0.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	2,785	2724.3	1.02×
Glock-18 \| High Beam (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 25	$0.19 0.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	2,751	2724.3	1.01×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.17 0.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	2,070	2043.2	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Blush Pour (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$0.14 0.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	1,397	1362.1	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Calligrafaux (Minimal Wear)weapon · blueLight	1 in 50	$0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	1,298	1362.1	0.95×
Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	1,365	1362.1	1.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 50	$0.07 0.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	1,298	1362.1	0.95×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertKrimZ$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertBodya160$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x3d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertGMayhem$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x5d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertblyat$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x5d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertHuysuki$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertAdvanced$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x6d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertFanShi ︻芫=--$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertdauzzing$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertQazar$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x7d

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertKQLY$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT257.2x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare✌(ツ)ว🌟$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.40x31s

SSG 08 | Prey (Field-Tested)weapon · gray✌(ツ)ว🌟$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x31s

P90 | Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythicalcatalinutzz$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.400.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x2m

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn)weapon · bluecatalinutzz$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.340.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x2m

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec02,9qf,92f9.-11$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.110.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x2m

Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · UncommonRыBoNьKa$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.430.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x2m

Desert Eagle | Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon•ＫＥＲＯＺ•$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.430.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x2m

SSG 08 | Prey (Field-Tested)weapon · gray•ＫＥＲＯＺ•$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x2m

Desert Eagle | Tilted (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLightArvAsli CunT$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.280.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x2m

Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecArvAsli CunT$0.500.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.110.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 95.75%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$0.50	95.75%	39
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$0.50	96.08%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.1%Classified 0.1%pink 0.3%industrial 0.1%#8847ff 3.4%violet 1.6%Rare 4.5%restricted 8.0%mil spec 6.0%Uncommon 9.0%Mythical 8.0%#4b69ff 18.0%#5e98d9 5.0%blue 9.0%milspec 8.0%blueLight 7.0%consumer 4.0%gray 4.0%light blue 4.0%best hit $129 (257.2x)