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Chululy

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.97
6.25 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.46%
EV $3.43 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
129.82%
311 openings, odds method
Variance
11.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
6 openings · below min
7 days
145.65%±44.26228 openings
30 days
129.82%±37.90311 openings
since tracking started
129.82%±37.90311 openings
-0.5%160.8%322.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.46% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.92% – 167.71%, 311 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h648.45%±272.8—odds
7d228145.65%±44.3+2.6σodds
30d311129.82%±37.9+2.2σodds
All311129.82%±37.9+2.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 311 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 2,000$491 773 HUNT_COIN7.2%10.2—
M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 667$115 181 HUNT_COIN5.0%10.5—
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$69.03 109 HUNT_COIN4.0%00.6—
M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 167$42.83 67.46 HUNT_COIN7.5%31.91.61×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$41.28 65.01 HUNT_COIN12.0%33.10.96×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$15.28 24.07 HUNT_COIN8.9%96.21.45×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 40$10.55 16.61 HUNT_COIN7.7%77.80.90×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 29$9.71 15.3 HUNT_COIN9.9%1310.91.19×
SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade1 in 20$6.25 9.85 HUNT_COIN9.1%1515.60.96×
UMP-45 | Mechanism (Battle-Scarred)weapon1 in 13$6.06 9.55 HUNT_COIN13.3%2123.30.90×
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 13$4.29 6.76 HUNT_COIN9.4%2923.31.24×
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · Consumer Grade10.0%$0.50 0.79 HUNT_COIN1.5%2031.10.64×
SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue15.0%$0.34 0.54 HUNT_COIN1.5%5146.61.09×
Sawed-Off | Yorick (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec15.0%$0.29 0.46 HUNT_COIN1.3%4946.61.05×
R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec15.0%$0.24 0.38 HUNT_COIN1.1%5346.61.14×
Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D915.0%$0.17 0.26 HUNT_COIN0.7%3646.60.77×
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$491773 HUNT_COIN123.7x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D9$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.04x
SCAR-20 | Stone Mosaico (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$6.259.85 HUNT_COIN1.58x
SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.340.54 HUNT_COIN0.09x
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$4.296.76 HUNT_COIN1.08x
R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.06x
R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specLEZAS$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.06x
UMP-45 | Mechanism (Battle-Scarred)weapon$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$6.069.55 HUNT_COIN1.53x
R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.240.38 HUNT_COIN0.06x
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$4.296.76 HUNT_COIN1.08x
Dual Berettas | Stained (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5E98D9$3.976.25 HUNT_COIN$0.170.26 HUNT_COIN0.04x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC$3.9786.46%16
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%rare 0.1%classified 3.3%restricted 5.5%Consumer Grade 15.0%other 7.5%blue 22.5%mil spec 30.0%#5E98D9 15.0%best hit $491 (123.7x)