Full Buy
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.73
12.17 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.46%
EV $6.68 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
72.76%
1,021 openings, odds method
Variance
34.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,021 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 2,000 | $1,701 2,679 HUNT_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 667 | $332 523 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| AK-47 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $194 306 HUNT_COIN | 8.7% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× |
| AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $135 213 HUNT_COIN | 20.3% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.27× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 67 | $95.77 151 HUNT_COIN | 21.5% | 10 | 15.3 | 0.65× |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 50 | $57.37 90.35 HUNT_COIN | 17.2% | 13 | 20.4 | 0.64× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 35.0% | $0.90 1.41 HUNT_COIN | 4.7% | 355 | 357.3 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff | 60.0% | $0.83 1.31 HUNT_COIN | 7.5% | 624 | 612.6 | 1.02× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffPOSK$7.7312.17 HUNT_COIN$0.831.31 HUNT_COIN0.11x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.46%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.73 | 86.46% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.5%Covert 1.5%red 2.0%restricted 35.0%#8847ff 60.0%best hit —