Half Life
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$104.99
165 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $90.82 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.21%
24 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 24 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $387 610 HUNT_COIN | 21.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 13 | $226 357 HUNT_COIN | 19.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.56× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 10.0% | $205 324 HUNT_COIN | 22.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 12.0% | $159 251 HUNT_COIN | 21.0% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 15.0% | $89.47 141 HUNT_COIN | 14.8% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| Sticker | Baaa-ckstabber!sticker · milspec | 15.0% | $0.83 1.3 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Knife Clubsticker · High Grade | 15.0% | $0.81 1.28 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| Sticker | Backstabsticker · Rare | 20.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.46× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$105165 HUNT_COIN$159251 HUNT_COIN1.52x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$105165 HUNT_COIN$226357 HUNT_COIN2.16x
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefine shi$105165 HUNT_COIN$226357 HUNT_COIN2.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $105 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 13.0%covert 37.0%milspec 15.0%High Grade 15.0%Rare 20.0%best hit —