Doppler

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$125.63

198 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

86.50%

EV $108.67 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.64%

65 openings, odds method

Variance

5.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 17

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

26 openings · below min

30 days

65 openings · below min

since tracking started

65 openings · below min

35.0%126.3%217.5%

Small sample. 65 openings and 3.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	26	126.80%±90.2	—	odds
30d	65	92.64%±57.0	—	odds
All	65	92.64%±57.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,000	$4,507 7,098 HUNT_COIN	4.1%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$2,546 4,010 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 200	$1,667 2,625 HUNT_COIN	7.7%	0	0.3	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$1,194 1,881 HUNT_COIN	8.2%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$1,080 1,701 HUNT_COIN	9.9%	1	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 83	$827 1,303 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	1	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 45	$521 820 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	3	1.4	2.10×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$397 626 HUNT_COIN	9.1%	2	1.6	1.23×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$305 481 HUNT_COIN	7.7%	2	1.8	1.12×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$264 416 HUNT_COIN	7.3%	2	1.9	1.03×
CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$186 292 HUNT_COIN	5.6%	1	2.1	0.47×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 29	$183 289 HUNT_COIN	5.9%	8	2.3	3.52×
AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$139 219 HUNT_COIN	5.1%	2	2.6	0.77×
Souvenir Nova \| Green Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	25.0%	$8.04 12.67 HUNT_COIN	1.9%	12	16.3	0.74×
PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial	25.0%	$5.25 8.27 HUNT_COIN	1.2%	19	16.3	1.17×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN	0.7%	12	16.3	0.74×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$126198 HUNT_COIN$1,0801,701 HUNT_COIN8.60x7d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$126198 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN6.58x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefine shi$126198 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN4.15x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$126198 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN4.15x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$126198 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN4.15x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$126198 HUNT_COIN$5.258.27 HUNT_COIN0.04x4d

Souvenir Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$126198 HUNT_COIN$8.0412.67 HUNT_COIN0.06x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefine shi$126198 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN4.15x4d

Souvenir Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade$126198 HUNT_COIN$8.0412.67 HUNT_COIN0.06x4d

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$126198 HUNT_COIN$5.258.27 HUNT_COIN0.04x4d

AWP | Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rarefine shi$126198 HUNT_COIN$183289 HUNT_COIN1.46x4d

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$126198 HUNT_COIN$2.994.71 HUNT_COIN0.02x4d

PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Factory New)weapon · industrial$126198 HUNT_COIN$5.258.27 HUNT_COIN0.04x4d

Souvenir Nova | Green Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Gradefine shi$126198 HUNT_COIN$8.0412.67 HUNT_COIN0.06x4d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife$126198 HUNT_COIN$8271,303 HUNT_COIN6.58x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$126	86.50%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.1%covert knife 4.7%epic 0.5%extraordinary 3.8%restricted 27.5%covert 2.8%mil spec 3.3%rare 3.5%#8847ff 4.0%Industrial Grade 25.0%industrial 25.0%best hit $1,080 (8.60x)