Needle
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$116.24
183 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $100.55 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
137.03%
21 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 11
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 21 openings and 2.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 200 | $849 1,338 HUNT_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $678 1,067 HUNT_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $583 919 HUNT_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 40 | $581 915 HUNT_COIN | 14.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $546 860 HUNT_COIN | 27.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.86× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 1 in 18 | $353 555 HUNT_COIN | 19.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $257 405 HUNT_COIN | 25.6% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| Sticker | Backstabsticker · Rare | 75.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 0.2% | 13 | 15.8 | 0.83× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertPumpFun$116183 HUNT_COIN$546860 HUNT_COIN4.70x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$116183 HUNT_COIN$257405 HUNT_COIN2.21x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$116183 HUNT_COIN$257405 HUNT_COIN2.21x
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$116183 HUNT_COIN$353555 HUNT_COIN3.03x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $116 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 0.5%covert 6.5%Covert 2.5%covert knife 15.5%Rare 75.0%best hit $581 (5.00x)