Freaky
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,275.38
2,009 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $1,103.20 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
51.48%
6 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 6 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $3,888 6,124 HUNT_COIN | 17.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $3,333 5,250 HUNT_COIN | 30.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $3,333 5,250 HUNT_COIN | 37.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.5% | $1,219 1,921 HUNT_COIN | 13.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 12.5% | $47.75 75.21 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6 | 12.5% | $2.69 4.24 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| Nova | Wild Six (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical | 17.5% | $0.25 0.4 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.90× |
| MAG-7 | Wildwood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial | 17.5% | $0.08 0.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertDameTime$1,2752,009 HUNT_COIN$3,8886,124 HUNT_COIN3.05x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6$1,2752,009 HUNT_COIN$2.694.24 HUNT_COIN0.00x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertDameTime$1,2752,009 HUNT_COIN$3,8886,124 HUNT_COIN3.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,275 | 86.50% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 17.5%classified 35.0%#d32ce6 12.5%Mythical 17.5%industrial 17.5%best hit $3,888 (3.05x)