Thats Wild
A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2,354.64
3,709 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
86.50%
EV $2,036.76 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
59.85%
12 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 12 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 12.5% | $10.4K 16,406 HUNT_COIN | 63.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 22.5% | $3,194 5,031 HUNT_COIN | 35.3% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 32.5% | $47.75 75.21 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink | 32.5% | $1.35 2.12 HUNT_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.79× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 14:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkGremlin$2,3553,709 HUNT_COIN$1.352.12 HUNT_COIN0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.50%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2,355 | 86.50% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 45.0%classified 22.5%pink 32.5%best hit $10.4K (4.42x)