WAGER TATIC CASE
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.57
2.48 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.39%
EV $1.38 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.60%
98 openings, odds method
Variance
9.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
31.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
69.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 98 openings and 30.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 98 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50,000 | $332 523 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 33,333 | $242 381 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 1,053 | $94.03 148 HUNT_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $33.26 52.39 HUNT_COIN | 24.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec | 29.9% | $3.09 4.86 HUNT_COIN | 67.1% | 33 | 29.3 | 1.13× |
| Sticker | TV On Miragesticker · high | 69.0% | $0.03 0.04 HUNT_COIN | 1.3% | 64 | 67.6 | 0.95× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.39%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.57 | 87.39% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.0%Ancient 0.1%mil spec 29.9%high 69.0%best hit —