5% TO WILD LOTUS
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$5.23
8.24 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.28%
EV $4.57 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.58%
739 openings, odds method
Variance
183.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 131
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 739 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertDiabloPhD$5.238.24 HUNT_COIN$332523 HUNT_COIN63.43x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Demeter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$5.238.24 HUNT_COIN$37.4358.96 HUNT_COIN7.16x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.28%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.23 | 87.28% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%other 0.6%Covert 0.0%covert 1.6%extraordinary 0.0%exotic 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%Rare 63.2%high 31.0%best hit $401 (76.63x)