Radioactive

A case on Hunt.gg (Official), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$38.49

60.62 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

88.68%

EV $34.13 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.14%

211 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 25

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

109.72%±44.37147 openings

30 days

98.14%±37.04211 openings

since tracking started

98.14%±37.04211 openings

60.5%178.3%296.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	193.75%±101.7	—	odds
7d	147	109.72%±44.4	+0.9σ	odds
30d	211	98.14%±37.0	+0.5σ	odds
All	211	98.14%±37.0	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 211 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$1,080 1,701 HUNT_COIN	15.8%	1	1.1	0.95×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$608 958 HUNT_COIN	8.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$521 820 HUNT_COIN	15.3%	3	2.1	1.42×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$183 289 HUNT_COIN	10.7%	8	4.2	1.90×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$133 210 HUNT_COIN	13.7%	5	7.4	0.68×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 22	$79.78 126 HUNT_COIN	10.5%	15	9.5	1.58×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$61.11 96.25 HUNT_COIN	14.3%	20	16.9	1.18×
SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$21.80 34.34 HUNT_COIN	6.4%	22	21.1	1.04×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	20.0%	$3.43 5.41 HUNT_COIN	2.0%	44	42.2	1.04×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	25.0%	$2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN	2.2%	45	52.8	0.85×
Sticker \| Green's Problemsticker · Rare	25.0%	$0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN	0.2%	48	52.8	0.91×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePeitschenMeister$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$1,0801,701 HUNT_COIN28.06x22h

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN13.53x2d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$521820 HUNT_COIN13.53x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$133210 HUNT_COIN3.46x11h

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$3.435.41 HUNT_COIN0.09x11h

SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · restricted$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$21.8034.34 HUNT_COIN0.57x11h

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · RareTrevor Lett$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN0.01x11h

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$3.435.41 HUNT_COIN0.09x14h

Souvenir M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$133210 HUNT_COIN3.46x14h

Sticker | Green's Problemsticker · Rare$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$0.220.35 HUNT_COIN0.01x14h

Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · redPeitschenMeister$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$79.78126 HUNT_COIN2.07x14h

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$38.4960.62 HUNT_COIN$61.1196.25 HUNT_COIN1.59x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.68%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$38.49	88.68%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 1.5%extraordinary 8.5%rare 2.0%mil spec 3.5%red 4.5%restricted 35.0%#4b69ff 20.0%Rare 25.0%best hit $1,080 (28.06x)