20% Hot Stuff
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.03
15.79 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
88.24%
EV $8.85 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.14%
161 openings, odds method
Variance
8.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 161 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 1,000 | $693 1,091 HUNT_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 53 | $111 175 HUNT_COIN | 23.8% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.29× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $47.75 75.21 HUNT_COIN | 16.2% | 1 | 4.8 | 0.21× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec | 1 in 20 | $34.71 54.67 HUNT_COIN | 19.6% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.37× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $24.29 38.26 HUNT_COIN | 27.5% | 14 | 16.1 | 0.87× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $1.89 2.98 HUNT_COIN | 4.3% | 31 | 32.2 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Hot Rod Heatsticker · #4b69ff | 60.0% | $0.11 0.18 HUNT_COIN | 0.8% | 97 | 96.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.0315.79 HUNT_COIN$111175 HUNT_COIN11.07x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified$10.0315.79 HUNT_COIN$111175 HUNT_COIN11.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.24%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.03 | 88.24% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 0.1%classified 1.9%covert 13.0%milspec 5.0%blue 20.0%#4b69ff 60.0%best hit —