5% Budget or Baller
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.48
13.36 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.38%
EV $7.41 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.68%
168 openings, odds method
Variance
24.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 168 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 168 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · epic | 1 in 1,000 | $777 1,224 HUNT_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare | 1 in 500 | $430 678 HUNT_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $242 381 HUNT_COIN | 9.8% | 3 | 0.5 | — |
| Souvenir P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted | 1 in 167 | $208 328 HUNT_COIN | 16.9% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 125 | $146 229 HUNT_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 100 | $96.95 153 HUNT_COIN | 13.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.79× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $76.11 120 HUNT_COIN | 10.3% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $69.30 109 HUNT_COIN | 9.3% | 5 | 1.7 | 2.98× |
| Sticker | Backstabsticker · Rare | 95.0% | $0.22 0.35 HUNT_COIN | 2.8% | 155 | 159.6 | 0.97× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$8.4813.36 HUNT_COIN$96.95153 HUNT_COIN11.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.38%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $8.48 | 87.38% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 0.1%rare 0.2%covert 2.1%Restricted 0.6%extraordinary 1.0%restricted 1.0%Rare 95.0%best hit —