10% WAGER
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.30
0.48 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.81%
EV $0.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.52%
1,907 openings, odds method
Variance
62.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 243
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,907 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000,000 | $332 523 HUNT_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 100,000 | $81.94 129 HUNT_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 10,000 | $57.37 90.35 HUNT_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $45.83 72.19 HUNT_COIN | 17.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient | 1 in 333 | $31.61 49.78 HUNT_COIN | 35.4% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $4.12 6.49 HUNT_COIN | 15.4% | 23 | 19.1 | 1.21× |
| USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified | 1 in 48 | $2.10 3.31 HUNT_COIN | 16.4% | 40 | 39.8 | 1.00× |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 15 | $0.36 0.57 HUNT_COIN | 8.8% | 120 | 124.0 | 0.97× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 50.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.4% | 919 | 953.5 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Virtus.prosticker | 40.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 1.9% | 799 | 762.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertPolapi SKINS skins.army$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$45.8372.19 HUNT_COIN150.4x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$45.8372.19 HUNT_COIN150.4x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancientcheese$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$31.6149.78 HUNT_COIN103.7x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$31.6149.78 HUNT_COIN103.7x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$31.6149.78 HUNT_COIN103.7x
Desert Eagle | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient$0.300.48 HUNT_COIN$31.6149.78 HUNT_COIN103.7x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.81%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.30 | 87.81% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.1%classified 1.0%red 0.0%Ancient 0.3%Classified 2.1%mil spec 6.5%other 90.0%best hit $45.83 (150.4x)