Cobalt

A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.78

2.81 HUNT_COIN

Advertised RTP

89.86%

EV $1.60 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

45.41%

493 openings, odds method

Variance

22.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 70

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

33 openings · below min

7 days

58.40%±47.15382 openings

30 days

45.41%±41.50493 openings

since tracking started

45.41%±41.50493 openings

-0.5%114.3%229.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.86% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (3.90% – 86.91%, 493 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	33	67.92%±160.4	—	odds
7d	382	58.40%±47.2	−1.3σ	odds
30d	493	45.41%±41.5	−2.1σ	odds
All	493	45.41%±41.5	−2.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 493 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$231 364 HUNT_COIN	1.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$137 216 HUNT_COIN	4.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,429	$94.03 148 HUNT_COIN	4.1%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 667	$74.51 117 HUNT_COIN	7.0%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · Legendary	1 in 400	$59.70 94.02 HUNT_COIN	9.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$47.75 75.21 HUNT_COIN	10.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 182	$39.58 62.34 HUNT_COIN	13.6%	3	2.7	1.11×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$29.23 46.03 HUNT_COIN	13.7%	3	3.7	0.81×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$23.61 37.19 HUNT_COIN	19.1%	5	6.4	0.78×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 66	$17.21 27.11 HUNT_COIN	16.3%	4	7.5	0.53×
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon	95.0%	$0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN	0.8%	478	468.3	1.02×

Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.782.81 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weaponMacieja$1.782.81 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.782.81 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$1.782.81 HUNT_COIN$39.5862.34 HUNT_COIN22.19x1h

Souvenir R8 Revolver | Night (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon$1.782.81 HUNT_COIN$0.010.02 HUNT_COIN0.01x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$1.78	89.86%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.9%covert knife 0.1%Ancient 0.1%classified 0.1%Legendary 1.8%restricted 2.0%other 95.0%best hit —