SKINDA COME UP
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.62
0.97 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.42%
EV $0.54 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
125.65%
511 openings, odds method
Variance
25.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
94.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 511 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 100 | $29.17 45.95 HUNT_COIN | 54.2% | 9 | 5.1 | 1.76× |
| StatTrak™ P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $7.99 12.59 HUNT_COIN | 29.7% | 11 | 10.2 | 1.08× |
| M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 40 | $2.99 4.71 HUNT_COIN | 13.9% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo)sticker | 94.5% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 2.2% | 478 | 482.9 | 0.99× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted$0.620.97 HUNT_COIN$2.994.71 HUNT_COIN4.86x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.42%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.62 | 87.42% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 1.0%restricted 4.5%other 94.5%best hit —