Gold 10% prof stix
A case on Hunt.gg (Community), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hunt.gg's own item price converted from hunt coin at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.73
4.3 HUNT_COIN
Advertised RTP
87.40%
EV $2.39 from 4 items
Observed RTP, 30d
189.14%
177 openings, odds method
Variance
75.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 200
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 177 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 177 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $332 523 HUNT_COIN | 69.5% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| AWP | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red | 1 in 200 | $57.37 90.35 HUNT_COIN | 12.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 11 | $4.76 7.5 HUNT_COIN | 18.0% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | NAF (Gold)sticker | 90.0% | $0.01 0.02 HUNT_COIN | 0.5% | 156 | 159.3 | 0.98× |
Values are Hunt.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hunt:api/cases, 11 Nov, 08:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Safety Net (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDiabloPhD$2.734.3 HUNT_COIN$4.767.5 HUNT_COIN1.74x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.40%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.73 | 87.40% | 4 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%red 0.5%restricted 9.0%other 90.0%best hit $332 (121.6x)