ARROW

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$118.27

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $103.49 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.89%

1,500 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.72%±11.72288 openings

7 days

89.24%±6.071,155 openings

30 days

87.89%±5.371,500 openings

since tracking started

87.89%±5.371,500 openings

77.5%89.8%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	288	89.72%±11.7	+0.4σ	odds
7d	1,155	89.24%±6.07	+0.5σ	odds
30d	1,500	87.89%±5.37	+0.0σ	odds
All	1,500	87.89%±5.37	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,500 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,557	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$3,775	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$2,003	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$1,685	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$1,572	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,319	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$532	0.1%	2	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 286	$414	1.4%	4	5.3	0.76×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 75	$393	5.1%	20	20.1	1.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$385	2.2%	9	8.7	1.03×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 189	$336	1.7%	7	8.0	0.88×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 149	$299	1.9%	10	10.1	1.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$280	7.7%	34	42.8	0.80×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 20	$273	13.3%	83	75.8	1.10×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$219	0.9%	3	6.2	0.49×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	10.7%	$173	17.9%	97	159.9	0.61×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 35	$137	3.7%	26	42.4	0.61×
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$117	4.1%	92	53.9	1.71×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 46	$116	2.4%	26	32.4	0.80×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 82	$112	1.3%	10	18.3	0.55×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 81	$111	1.3%	15	18.6	0.81×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 74	$105	1.4%	10	20.3	0.49×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 95	$102	1.0%	11	15.8	0.70×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$99.16	2.4%	29	37.2	0.78×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 37	$98.84	2.6%	31	40.6	0.76×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$97.27	2.4%	35	38.3	0.92×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 62	$94.24	1.5%	19	24.1	0.79×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 56	$87.93	1.5%	20	26.7	0.75×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 54	$85.84	1.5%	22	27.6	0.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 109	$82.85	0.7%	17	13.8	1.23×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 83	$77.99	0.9%	8	18.0	0.44×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 65	$65.82	1.0%	18	22.9	0.78×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 65	$65.23	1.0%	13	23.3	0.56×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 64	$64.79	1.0%	23	23.4	0.98×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$60.37	1.1%	18	27.8	0.65×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$58.32	0.8%	17	22.5	0.76×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$54.62	1.3%	34	37.5	0.91×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$54.51	0.9%	13	24.8	0.53×
★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$54.34	1.3%	26	37.8	0.69×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$54.15	0.9%	31	25.1	1.24×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$34.58	2.6%	113	114.6	0.99×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$26.29	1.5%	72	89.0	0.81×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 11	$23.33	2.0%	120	134.1	0.89×
Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · violet	10.1%	$22.76	2.2%	130	151.8	0.86×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/arrow, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$118$1,33911.32x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert????????????????????????????????$118$5614.74x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Death13$118$3933.32x10m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pinkDeath13$118$34.580.29x10m

AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDeath13$118$1170.99x10m

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Death13$118$3893.29x13m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary$118$24.870.21x13m

★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$118$98.860.84x13m

★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$118$1030.87x13m

AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$118$26.090.22x13m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink$118$34.590.29x13m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pinkDeath13$118$34.590.29x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$118	87.50%	44
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$118	87.26%	44
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$118	87.57%	44
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$118	88.20%	44
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$118	88.18%	44
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$118	87.98%	44
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$118	87.71%	44
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$118	87.70%	44
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$118	87.98%	44
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$118	87.86%	44
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$118	87.66%	44
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$118	87.78%	44
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$118	87.76%	44
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$118	87.68%	44
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$118	88.08%	44
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$118	87.70%	44
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$118	87.78%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.2%classified 11.4%restricted 0.0%gold 15.2%extraordinary 9.5%pink 7.6%Legendary 8.9%violet 10.1%best hit $1,339 (11.32x)