AWP

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$3.47

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $3.04 from 75 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.43%

12.3K openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.68%±9.381,035 openings

7 days

83.60%±2.9710.5K openings

30 days

83.43%±2.7412.3K openings

since tracking started

83.43%±2.7412.3K openings

76.5%86.5%96.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.59% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.69% – 86.17%, 12,323 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,035	86.68%±9.38	−0.2σ	odds
7d	10.5K	83.60%±2.97	−2.6σ	odds
30d	12.3K	83.43%±2.74	−3.0σ	odds
All	12.3K	83.43%±2.74	−3.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values75 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$783	0.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$280	0.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$146	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$137	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$70.80	0.3%	2	1.6	1.24×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 7,692	$70.76	0.3%	1	1.6	0.62×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,250	$58.10	0.3%	4	2.0	2.02×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$54.81	0.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$52.52	0.3%	0	2.1	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$43.77	0.3%	3	2.6	1.16×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$42.18	0.3%	1	2.6	0.39×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,167	$37.64	0.3%	1	3.0	0.34×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,000	$35.40	0.3%	2	3.1	0.65×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$30.97	0.3%	6	3.6	1.67×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$26.83	0.3%	1	4.1	0.25×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$24.37	0.3%	1	4.4	0.22×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 2,500	$22.06	0.3%	4	4.9	0.81×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,439	$21.40	0.3%	1	5.1	0.20×
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 11,111	$17.68	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$15.79	0.1%	2	3.3	0.60×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$14.53	0.2%	4	4.0	1.01×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$13.28	0.3%	8	8.2	0.98×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 304	$12.31	1.3%	19	40.7	0.47×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 150	$12.03	2.6%	70	82.6	0.85×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 218	$9.95	1.5%	38	56.7	0.67×
AWP \| The End (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 96	$9.60	3.3%	70	129.4	0.54×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 90	$9.32	3.4%	92	137.3	0.67×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$8.79	2.6%	35	110.0	0.32×
AWP \| Acheron (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,124	$8.07	0.2%	11	11.0	1.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 42	$7.93	6.2%	253	294.3	0.86×
AWP \| POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 37	$6.90	6.2%	339	338.1	1.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 115	$6.65	1.9%	71	107.2	0.66×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 245	$6.20	0.8%	35	50.4	0.69×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 159	$5.87	1.2%	40	77.7	0.51×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 121	$5.81	1.6%	68	101.8	0.67×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 164	$5.72	1.1%	43	75.1	0.57×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 119	$5.50	1.5%	62	103.6	0.60×
AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 158	$5.39	1.1%	38	78.0	0.49×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 106	$4.77	1.5%	57	116.3	0.49×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$4.62	1.5%	60	124.0	0.48×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 117	$4.42	1.2%	55	105.4	0.52×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$4.37	2.2%	102	190.9	0.53×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 96	$4.33	1.5%	73	128.5	0.57×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$4.32	1.3%	55	110.4	0.50×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$4.30	1.5%	73	130.3	0.56×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$4.09	1.2%	75	113.0	0.66×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$4.08	1.3%	65	123.6	0.53×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 130	$3.97	1.0%	52	94.8	0.55×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 93	$3.76	1.3%	80	133.6	0.60×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 93	$3.76	1.3%	79	133.6	0.59×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 99	$3.74	1.2%	68	124.6	0.55×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 139	$3.71	0.9%	35	88.6	0.39×
AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 89	$3.55	1.3%	68	138.3	0.49×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 46	$3.37	2.4%	157	266.1	0.59×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 43	$3.22	2.5%	173	285.7	0.61×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$2.97	2.5%	194	320.0	0.61×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$2.69	2.6%	217	367.7	0.59×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 37	$2.58	2.3%	166	329.9	0.50×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 45	$2.54	1.9%	145	275.2	0.53×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$2.48	2.3%	211	348.6	0.61×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$2.48	1.9%	152	284.6	0.53×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 43	$2.45	1.9%	157	289.6	0.54×
AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 92	$2.39	0.9%	87	134.1	0.65×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.56	1.1%	133	253.1	0.53×
AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 49	$1.27	0.8%	121	251.0	0.48×
AWP \| Acheron (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$1.22	1.1%	188	343.8	0.55×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 35	$1.22	1.2%	207	357.2	0.58×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.22	1.2%	219	357.2	0.61×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.12	1.2%	218	402.5	0.54×
AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 30	$1.06	1.2%	241	418.6	0.58×
AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$1.01	1.2%	254	447.9	0.57×
AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 31	$0.91	1.0%	215	400.3	0.54×
AWP \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 28	$0.85	1.0%	260	440.2	0.59×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.83	1.0%	276	455.2	0.61×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	13.1%	$0.82	3.5%	1,768	1618.9	1.09×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/awp, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffla gară ☁$3.47$6.901.99x7m

AWP | Worm Godweapon · violetla gară ☁$3.47$2.940.85x7m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetla gară ☁$3.47$1.250.36x7m

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspecla gară ☁$3.47$0.820.24x7m

AWP | POP AWP (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffla gară ☁$3.47$6.601.90x7m

AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff$3.47$2.510.72x7m

AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink$3.47$9.272.67x7m

AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec$3.47$0.790.23x7m

AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$3.47$5.661.63x7m

AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec$3.47$0.860.25x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$3.47	87.50%	75
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$3.47	87.66%	75
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$3.47	87.39%	75
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$3.47	87.20%	75
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$3.47	87.91%	75
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$3.47	87.60%	75
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$3.47	87.08%	75
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$3.47	87.67%	75
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$3.47	87.77%	75
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$3.47	87.40%	75
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$3.47	87.61%	75
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$3.47	87.71%	75
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.47	87.69%	75
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.47	87.83%	75
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$3.47	87.56%	75
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$3.47	87.51%	75
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$3.47	87.99%	75

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.1%red 0.0%rare 0.1%Ancient 0.0%classified 2.1%restricted 19.5%industrial 0.0%pink 9.2%Mythical 3.8%Rare 6.4%#d32ce6 2.4%#8847ff 14.6%uncommon 0.9%Legendary 0.6%Classified 0.6%blue 2.8%violet 4.5%Mil Spec Grade 2.2%milspec 23.2%#4b69ff 6.9%best hit —