BLOODSHOT

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$315.72

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $276.25 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.28%

2,028 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.00%±7.30757 openings

7 days

88.15%±4.761,908 openings

30 days

88.28%±4.622,028 openings

since tracking started

88.28%±4.622,028 openings

80.0%88.0%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	757	88.00%±7.30	+0.1σ	odds
7d	1,908	88.15%±4.76	+0.3σ	odds
30d	2,028	88.28%±4.62	+0.3σ	odds
All	2,028	88.28%±4.62	+0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,028 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$8,833	1.0%	2	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 2,500	$6,040	0.9%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$5,557	0.8%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$2,514	0.8%	1	1.8	0.55×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 909	$1,996	0.8%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 588	$1,328	0.8%	8	3.4	2.32×
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$1,109	5.2%	22	26.4	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 64	$915	5.2%	34	31.8	1.07×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 63	$900	5.2%	36	32.4	1.11×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 93	$667	2.6%	22	21.9	1.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 88	$651	2.7%	17	22.9	0.74×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 43	$629	5.3%	60	46.8	1.28×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 39	$572	5.3%	57	51.7	1.10×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 77	$532	2.5%	22	26.4	0.83×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 63	$478	2.8%	27	32.4	0.83×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 185	$341	0.7%	7	11.0	0.64×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	14.5%	$336	17.6%	228	293.5	0.78×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 11	$312	10.1%	142	181.3	0.78×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	11.0%	$257	10.2%	216	222.7	0.97×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 27	$241	3.3%	134	75.8	1.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 26	$225	3.2%	75	79.1	0.95×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 50	$182	1.3%	46	40.4	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 270	$170	0.2%	9	7.5	1.20×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36	$148	1.5%	50	56.2	0.89×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$126	0.3%	9	15.0	0.60×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$123	2.5%	123	113.6	1.08×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 16	$101	2.3%	107	127.8	0.84×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 90	$86.28	0.3%	17	22.5	0.76×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$70.80	0.5%	27	37.7	0.72×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 62	$65.37	0.4%	26	32.9	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 48	$57.86	0.4%	37	42.4	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 44	$54.95	0.5%	31	46.0	0.67×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$54.24	0.6%	45	57.8	0.78×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 45	$53.97	0.4%	36	44.6	0.81×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 34	$53.21	0.6%	53	59.6	0.89×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 38	$50.31	0.5%	59	53.1	1.11×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$50.22	0.4%	42	50.1	0.84×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$48.53	0.5%	41	55.0	0.75×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/bloodshot, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$316$8,98428.46x5d

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$316$8,83327.98x16h

AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$316$2,6398.36x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertINODORO$316$1,4144.48x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$316$1,3824.38x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$316$1,3454.26x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertthecast2$316$1,3314.22x3h

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertthecast2$316$1,3284.21x3h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertPolesz$316$3361.06x10m

AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$316$49.300.16x11m

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertPolesz$316$3331.06x11m

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Death13$316$2570.81x16m

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · EmeraldDeath13$316$5721.81x16m

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare$316$89.690.28x21m

★ Classic Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$316$3331.06x21m

AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$316$53.670.17x21m

★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$316$2550.81x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$316	87.50%	38
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$316	87.65%	38
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$316	87.93%	38
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$316	87.52%	38
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$316	87.52%	38
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$316	87.55%	38
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$316	87.67%	38
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$316	87.47%	38
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$316	87.61%	38
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$316	87.82%	38
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$316	87.66%	38
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$316	87.27%	38
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$316	87.79%	38
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$316	87.43%	38
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$316	87.50%	38
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$316	87.32%	38
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$316	87.62%	38

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 70.7%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 4.9%gold 1.6%epic 9.3%rare 9.6%Ancient 1.6%red 2.3%best hit $8,984 (28.46x)