BUBBLE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

Price

$11.39

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $9.97 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.91%

2,426 openings, odds method

Variance

24.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71.36%±58.87272 openings

7 days

79.09%±21.952,051 openings

30 days

79.91%±20.032,426 openings

since tracking started

79.91%±20.032,426 openings

12.0%71.5%131.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	272	71.36%±58.9	−0.5σ	odds
7d	2,051	79.09%±22.0	−0.8σ	odds
30d	2,426	79.91%±20.0	−0.8σ	odds
All	2,426	79.91%±20.0	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,426 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,557	5.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$323	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$287	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$173	0.3%	1	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$130	0.3%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$119	0.4%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$54.24	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$53.21	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$43.45	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,429	$42.85	0.3%	10	1.7	5.89×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$35.79	13.5%	38	91.2	0.42×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 323	$27.05	0.8%	1	7.5	0.13×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$26.29	1.6%	9	14.6	0.62×
AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$24.37	4.4%	26	43.2	0.60×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 204	$23.08	1.1%	4	11.9	0.34×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 49	$22.79	4.7%	22	49.5	0.44×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$20.29	2.3%	21	27.9	0.75×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$18.51	2.6%	20	33.5	0.60×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 81	$18.34	2.3%	11	29.8	0.37×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$16.90	5.1%	23	72.8	0.32×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 71	$16.70	2.4%	27	34.2	0.79×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$16.58	4.5%	62	66.0	0.94×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$15.30	4.9%	55	77.6	0.71×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$13.28	4.7%	63	85.9	0.73×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 65	$10.91	1.7%	19	37.1	0.51×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 106	$10.60	1.0%	17	22.8	0.75×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$10.57	1.5%	25	34.7	0.72×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 74	$9.03	1.2%	18	33.0	0.55×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$8.79	3.8%	107	103.3	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$8.68	1.0%	25	28.9	0.87×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$8.40	1.1%	16	30.3	0.53×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$8.29	1.1%	29	30.8	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$7.50	1.1%	21	36.9	0.57×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 66	$7.50	1.1%	17	36.9	0.46×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 68	$7.02	1.0%	20	35.9	0.56×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 65	$6.84	1.1%	16	37.4	0.43×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$6.83	1.0%	20	35.2	0.57×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 115	$6.69	0.6%	16	21.1	0.76×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$6.25	1.1%	32	42.2	0.76×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 60	$6.19	1.0%	32	40.3	0.79×
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 57	$5.95	1.1%	20	42.7	0.47×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 35	$5.27	1.5%	44	69.9	0.63×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 67	$4.55	0.7%	21	36.1	0.58×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$4.51	0.7%	39	36.6	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 63	$4.51	0.7%	25	38.3	0.65×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 65	$4.44	0.7%	22	37.6	0.59×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.15	1.1%	43	63.3	0.68×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 55	$4.08	0.7%	25	44.2	0.57×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$3.44	1.2%	49	82.2	0.60×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 39	$3.20	0.8%	31	62.1	0.50×
P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	1 in 16	$3.17	2.0%	115	155.3	0.74×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 15	$3.08	2.0%	169	157.2	1.08×
P250 \| Bone Mask (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$2.49	1.8%	168	171.0	0.98×
Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · blue	1 in 14	$2.40	1.7%	178	169.8	1.05×

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from keydrop:skins/category/bubble, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Party Animalweapon · pinksecsuscat$11.39$10.720.94x1h

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$6.680.59x1h

MAG-7 | Justiceweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$6.290.55x1h

M4A1-S | Party Animalweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$10.720.94x1h

P2000 | Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blueTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$3.170.28x1h

MAG-7 | Justiceweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$6.290.55x1h

M4A1-S | Party Animalweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$10.720.94x1h

P2000 | Wicked Sickweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$3.750.33x1h

M4A1-S | Nightmareweapon · pinkTHE DECOY MAN$11.39$9.590.84x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:35 UTC	$11.39	87.50%	54
10 Nov, 14:31 UTC	$11.39	87.87%	54
9 Nov, 20:17 UTC	$11.39	87.26%	54
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$11.39	87.78%	54
8 Nov, 17:45 UTC	$11.39	87.72%	54
8 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$11.39	87.60%	54
7 Nov, 17:27 UTC	$11.39	87.76%	54
7 Nov, 11:22 UTC	$11.39	87.65%	54
6 Nov, 17:08 UTC	$11.39	87.48%	54
6 Nov, 11:04 UTC	$11.39	87.59%	54
5 Nov, 16:50 UTC	$11.39	87.71%	54
5 Nov, 10:46 UTC	$11.39	87.53%	54
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$11.39	87.50%	54
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$11.39	87.68%	54
3 Nov, 16:37 UTC	$11.39	87.76%	54
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$11.39	87.62%	54
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$11.39	87.66%	54
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$11.39	87.82%	54

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.1%classified 37.8%pink 21.1%#d32ce6 5.0%Classified 3.4%rare 3.1%#d32ee6 0.9%Legendary 1.6%light blue 6.4%violet 6.5%consumer 7.0%blue 7.0%best hit —